The Magnitude of Change in Serum Phosphate Concentration Is Associated with Mortality in Patients with Severe Trauma.

Purpose: Previous studies have suggested that serum phosphate concentration is a prognostic factor in critically ill patients. However, the association between changes in serum phosphate levels and prognosis of patients with trauma remains unclear.

Materials and methods: This study included patients with severe trauma who were treated at the emergency department. Delta phosphate (Δ phosphate) was defined as the difference between serum phosphate concentrations measured at baseline and after 24 hours from the initial measurement. Patients were divided into five groups according to their Δ phosphate levels: group I (Δ phosphate <-2 mg/dL), group II (Δ phosphate -2 to -0.5 mg/dL), group III (Δ phosphate -0.5 to 0.5 mg/dL), group IV (Δ phosphate 0.5 to 2 mg/dL), and group V (Δ phosphate ≥2 mg/dL).

Results: Overall, 1905 patients with severe trauma were included in the analysis. The 30-day mortality was the lowest in group III and tended to increase in groups with a larger Δ phosphate in both the positive and negative directions (group I: 13.7%, group II: 6.8%, group III: 4.6%, group IV: 6.6%, and group V: 26.8%). In multivariable analysis with group III as the reference group, the odds ratios (ORs) of mortality were statistically significant in group IV [OR, 1.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-3.56] and group V (OR, 5.28; 95% CI, 2.47-11.24).

Conclusion: An increase in serum phosphate concentrations 24 hours after the initial measurement could be considered as an independent prognostic factor in patients with severe trauma.