Use of TLM derived models to estimate toxicity of weathered MC252 oil based on conventional chemical data and the potential impact of unresolved polar components.

Target lipid model (TLM) and toxic unit (TU) approaches were applied to ecotoxicity and chemistry data from low-energy WAFs (LE-WAFs) of source and weathered crude oils originating from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The weathered oils included artificially weathered oils and naturally weathered samples collected in the Gulf of Mexico after the spill. Oil weathering greatly reduced the concentrations of identified LE-WAF components, however, the mass of uncharacterized polar material (UPC) in the LE-WAFs remained largely unchanged during the weathering process. While the TLM-derived calculations displayed a significant decrease in toxicity (TUs) for the heavily weathered oils, copepod toxicity, expressed as LC₁₀-based TUs, were comparable between LE-WAFs of fresh and weathered oils. The discrepancy between observed and predicted toxicity for the LE-WAFs of artificially weathered oils may be related to limitations by the chemical analyses or increased toxicity due to generation of new unknown compounds during the weathering process.