埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动力是什么?

Hebatalla Atef Emam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在调查埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动因素(2005-2020 年)。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法,对私人储蓄、滞后私人储蓄、实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长、公共储蓄、通货膨胀、实际利率、货币供应、经常账户赤字和失业率的季度数据进行分析。研究结果埃及的私人储蓄具有持续性,公共储蓄在短期和长期内都会抑制私人储蓄。在短期和长期内,实际利率、通货膨胀率和失业率对私人储蓄有负面影响,且在统计上有显著意义。经常账户赤字对私人储蓄有负面影响,但只在短期内显著。其他纳入的变量,如实际国内生产总值和货币供应量,在统计上并不显著。这可能归因于埃及人的高消费而非储蓄动机,以及他们更依赖于其他非正规储蓄渠道的倾向。研究局限性/意义研究结果具有政策相关性,因为揭示私人储蓄的决定因素可指导决策者制定适当的可持续发展政策。它还有助于确定阻碍促进私人储蓄的主要障碍,从而确定政策干预的主要领域,如金融普惠、消除贫困、创造就业和结构改革。独创性/价值 本研究为相关文献做出了贡献:(1)由于缺乏一致的数据,本研究针对的是私人储蓄数据,而不是类似研究中涉及的总储蓄数据;(2)鉴于发展中国家私人储蓄数据的质量相对较低、不可用且不一致,因此应在单个国家的基础上对私人储蓄的决定因素进行调查,而本研究正是这样做的;(3)本研究填补了文献中关于埃及私人储蓄缺乏最新研究的空白;(4)本研究依赖于季度数据,可以得出更可靠的结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
What are the main drivers of private saving in Egypt?
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the main drivers of private saving in Egypt (2005–2020).Design/methodology/approachIt employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for quarterly data on private saving, lagged private saving, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, public saving, inflation, real interest rate, money supply, current account deficit and unemployment.FindingsPrivate saving in Egypt displays persistency and public saving depresses private saving in the short run and long run. Real interest rate, inflation and unemployment have negative and statistically significant impacts on private saving in the short run and long run. The current account deficit displays a negative effect on private saving but is significant only in the short run. Other incorporated variables, like real GDP and money supply, are not statistically significant. This could be attributed to the high consumption rather than saving motive of the Egyptian population and their tendency to rely more on other informal saving channels.Research limitations/implicationsFindings are of policy relevance as unleashing the determinants of private saving guides policymakers in formulating the appropriate sustainable development policies. It also assists in identifying the main obstacles hindering the promotion of private saving and hence major areas for policy intervention, like financial inclusion, poverty eradication, employment generation and structural reforms.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature: (1) it tackles private saving figure rather than aggregate saving figure that is covered by similar studies due to lack of consistent data, (2) given the relatively low quality, unavailability and inconsistency of data on private saving in developing countries, investigating the determinants of private saving should be carried out on an individual country basis which is done by this study, (3) this study fulfills the gap in literature related to the lack of up-to-date studies on private saving in Egypt and (4) it relies on quarterly data that could produce more reliable results.
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