Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe

Abstract. Wildfires have reached an unprecedented scale in the Northern Hemisphere. The summers of 2022 and 2023 demonstrated the destructive power of wildfires, especially in North America and southern Europe. Global warming leads to changes in fire danger. Specifically, fire seasons are assumed to become more extreme and will extend to more temperate regions in northern latitudes in the future. However, the extent to which the seasonality and severity of fire danger in regions of central Europe will change in the future remains to be investigated. Multiple studies claim that natural variability and model uncertainty hide the trend of increasing fire danger in multi-model climate simulations for future potentially fire-prone areas. Such a trend might be isolated with single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), which help scientists to distinguish the forced response from natural variability. So far, the SMILE framework has only been applied for fire danger estimation on a global scale. To date, only a few dynamically downscaled regional SMILEs exist, although they enhance the spatial representation of climatic patterns on a regional or local scale. In this study, we use a regional SMILE of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) over a region in central Europe under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario from 1980 to 2099 to analyze changes in fire danger in an area that is currently not fire prone. We use the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. The study area covers four heterogeneous landscapes, namely the Alps, the Alpine Foreland, the lowlands of the South German Escarpment, and the Eastern Mountain Ranges of the Bavarian Forest. We demonstrate that the CRCM5-LE is a dataset suitable for disentangling climate trends from natural variability in a multi-variate fire danger metric. Our results show the strongest increases in the median (50th) and extreme (90th) quantiles of the FWI in the northern parts (South German Escarpment and Eastern Mountain Ranges) of the study area in the summer months of July and August. There, high fire danger becomes the median condition by the end of the century, and levels of high fire danger occur earlier in the fire season. The southern parts (Alps and Alpine Foreland) are less strongly affected by changes in fire danger than the northern parts. However, these regions reach their time of emergence (TOE) in the early 2040s because of very low current fire danger. In the northern parts, the climate change trend exceeds natural variability only in the late 2040s. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by the end of the century. Our results highlight the potential for severe future fire events in central Europe, which is currently not very fire prone, and demonstrate the need for fire management even in regions with a temperate climate.