亚马逊森林砍伐导致大豆-玉米双季种植的气候风险

A. T. Leite‐Filho, B. Soares-Filho, Ubirajara de Oliveira
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摘要

在巴西亚马逊河流域(BA)为养牛和生产大豆而砍伐森林,对气候系统的各个方面产生了重大影响。森林砍伐造成的地表变化直接影响地表能量和水分的可用性,从而影响降雨模式、气温和农业雨季的到来。在此,我们评估了巴拉那大豆-玉米双季种植系统第一季和第二季与森林损失相关的气候风险。我们利用长期的每日遥感气候数据和年度土地利用图作为机器学习算法的输入,分离出森林消失对气候的影响信号。我们的研究结果表明,从地方到区域地理尺度,广阔陆地带的森林消失加剧了气候变化的风险,在区域尺度上的影响更为明显。从 1999 年到 2019 年,大部分森林被砍伐地区的农业雨季开始时间推迟了约 76 天。这些地区的降雨量也减少了 360 毫米,最高气温上升了 2.5 摄氏度。鉴于这些结果,停止砍伐森林具有集体优势。保护亚马逊森林对于保持农业雨季的提前到来、适宜的气温和充足的降雨量至关重要,这些都是大豆-玉米双季种植系统获得高产所必需的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate risks to soy‐maize double‐cropping due to Amazon deforestation
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (BA) for cattle and soybean production has significant consequences for the various aspects of the climate system. Land surface modifications due to deforestation directly influence surface energy and moisture availability, hence impacting rainfall patterns, air temperature and the onset of the agricultural rainy season. Here, we assess the forest loss‐related climate risks for the first and second crop seasons of the soy‐maize double cropping system in the BA. We utilized long‐term, daily, remote sensed climate data and annual land‐use maps as input for a machine learning algorithm to isolate the signal of forest loss on the climate. Our findings indicate that forest loss in the BA intensifies the risks of climate change from the local to the regional geographical scale, with the impact being more pronounced at the regional scale. Between 1999 and 2019, largely deforested regions exhibited a delay of approximately 76 days in the onset of the agricultural rainy season. These regions also experienced a 360 mm decrease in rainfall and an increase in maximum air temperature of 2.5°C. In view of these results, there are collective advantages of halting deforestation. Conservation of the Amazon Forest is vital for maintaining the early onset of the agricultural rainy season, favourable temperatures and adequate rainfall volume needed for attaining high yields in the soy‐maize double cropping system.
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