数据分析在石油服务公司评估绩优产品和开发销售预测模型中的决策作用

Ronggo Saputro, Santi Novani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了一家专业生产石油和天然气设备的公司所面临的战略挑战。该公司在组织结构调整后,解散了一个业务部门,成立了另一个业务部门,目前正在亚太地区处理产品重点和人力分配方面的复杂问题。研究问题的核心是确定业绩最好的产品,根据销售业绩确定建立支持基地设施的潜在国家,以及制定预测未来销售额的方法。研究包括检索和预处理历史销售数据,然后进行全面的描述性和预测性分析。数据被分为训练集和测试集,以便于进行预测分析。开发并测试了多个预测模型,包括神经网络、线性回归、梯度提升树、随机森林和 ARIMA 方法。描述性分析使用了 Tableau Public,而预测性分析则使用了 RapidMiner Studio。通过描述性和预测性分析方法得出的研究结果揭示了重要的见解。防喷器(BOP)成为亚太地区表现最好的产品。在建立支持基地设施方面,马来西亚被确定为 BOP 的理想地点,而印度尼西亚则适合歧管产品组。此外,随机森林模型被认为是预测未来销售额的最有效方法。这些研究结果为公司的产品聚焦、区域扩张和资源分配提供了战略指导,为公司在竞争激烈的行业中做出决策做出了重要贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Data Analytics for Decision-Making in Evaluating the Top-Performing Product and Developing Sales Forecasting Model in an Oil Service Company
This study addresses the strategic challenges faced by a company specialising in the manufacture of oil and gas equipment. Following organisational restructuring, which involved the dissolution of one business unit and the creation of another, the company is navigating complexities in product focus and manpower allocation within the Asia-Pacific region. The research problem centres on identifying the top-performing product, determining potential countries for establishing a support base facility based on sales performance, and developing a method for forecasting future sales. The research involved retrieving and pre-processing historical sales data, then performing a thorough descriptive and predictive analysis. The data was partitioned into training and testing sets to facilitate predictive analytics. Several predictive models were developed and tested, including neural networks, linear regression, gradient-boosted trees, random forests, and ARIMA methods. Tableau Public was utilised for descriptive analytics, whereas RapidMiner Studio was employed for predictive analytics. The study’s results, derived through both descriptive and predictive analytic methods, reveal critical insights. The Blowout Preventer (BOP) emerged as the top-performing product in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of establishing support base facilities, Malaysia was identified as the ideal location for the BOP, while Indonesia was found suitable for the Manifold product group. Furthermore, the Random Forest model was determined to be the most effective for forecasting future sales. These findings provide strategic guidance for the company in product focus, regional expansion, and resource allocation, contributing significantly to the company’s decision-making process in a competitive industry.
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