{"title":"外国援助对埃塞俄比亚经济增长的影响","authors":"Girum Dagne","doi":"10.1177/00194662231213583","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of foreign aid on growth in Ethiopia based on time series data from 1980 to 2019. This study uses Autoregressive distributed Lag and an Error Correction to determine the long- and short-run impacts of foreign aid on growth. The empirical results show that, in the long run, foreign aid has a negative and insignificant effect on real GDP growth. However, gross domestic savings, exports, and inflation exert positive and insignificant impacts on GDP growth. Furthermore, Human capital and gross consumption expenditure exert a positive and significant impact on GDP growth, and gross capital information has a negative and significant impact on GDP growth. Thus, Ethiopia’s national development policy should focus on the productive utilisation of domestic savings to increase GDP growth rather than depend on external capital inflow, which is uncertain even when donor countries face long recessions. JEL Codes: E1, E2, E3","PeriodicalId":509033,"journal":{"name":"The Indian Economic Journal","volume":"4 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth of Ethiopia\",\"authors\":\"Girum Dagne\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/00194662231213583\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study examines the impact of foreign aid on growth in Ethiopia based on time series data from 1980 to 2019. This study uses Autoregressive distributed Lag and an Error Correction to determine the long- and short-run impacts of foreign aid on growth. The empirical results show that, in the long run, foreign aid has a negative and insignificant effect on real GDP growth. However, gross domestic savings, exports, and inflation exert positive and insignificant impacts on GDP growth. Furthermore, Human capital and gross consumption expenditure exert a positive and significant impact on GDP growth, and gross capital information has a negative and significant impact on GDP growth. Thus, Ethiopia’s national development policy should focus on the productive utilisation of domestic savings to increase GDP growth rather than depend on external capital inflow, which is uncertain even when donor countries face long recessions. JEL Codes: E1, E2, E3\",\"PeriodicalId\":509033,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Indian Economic Journal\",\"volume\":\"4 12\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Indian Economic Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/00194662231213583\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Indian Economic Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00194662231213583","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究基于 1980 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据,探讨了外国援助对埃塞俄比亚经济增长的影响。本研究使用自回归分布滞后和误差修正来确定外国援助对经济增长的长期和短期影响。实证结果表明,从长期来看,外援对实际 GDP 增长的影响为负且不显著。然而,国内储蓄总额、出口和通货膨胀对国内生产总值的增长产生了积极而不显著的影响。此外,人力资本和消费总支出对国内生产总值的增长有积极而显著的影响,而资本信息总额对国内生产总值的增长有消极而显著的影响。因此,埃塞俄比亚的国家发展政策应侧重于国内储蓄的生产性利用,以提高国内生产总值的增长,而不是依赖外部资本流入,因为外部资本流入即使在捐助国面临长期衰退的情况下也是不确定的。JEL Codes:E1, E2, E3
Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth of Ethiopia
This study examines the impact of foreign aid on growth in Ethiopia based on time series data from 1980 to 2019. This study uses Autoregressive distributed Lag and an Error Correction to determine the long- and short-run impacts of foreign aid on growth. The empirical results show that, in the long run, foreign aid has a negative and insignificant effect on real GDP growth. However, gross domestic savings, exports, and inflation exert positive and insignificant impacts on GDP growth. Furthermore, Human capital and gross consumption expenditure exert a positive and significant impact on GDP growth, and gross capital information has a negative and significant impact on GDP growth. Thus, Ethiopia’s national development policy should focus on the productive utilisation of domestic savings to increase GDP growth rather than depend on external capital inflow, which is uncertain even when donor countries face long recessions. JEL Codes: E1, E2, E3