Pathways to Success, or Unfulfilled Dreams? An Examination of Pathway-Based Disparities in Graduation Rates

Research on pathway-based disparities in postsecondary education (PSE) has mounted in recent decades, indicating that nonlinear pathways may hamper students’ academic success. In Ontario, Canada, research on this topic remains largely inconclusive given the historically low quality of available data sources, with researchers commonly relying on small and unrepresentative samples, short observation windows, and a restricted range of academic and demographic controls. Through this study we reexamine pathway-based disparities in graduation rates using a custom administrative linkage that constitutes the best available evidence to study this topic in the province of Ontario. Our statistical analyses confirm the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the PSE pathways traveled by students and their odds of graduation, particularly among community college-to-university transfers. We conclude by considering the implications of these findings for both policymakers and future research in this space in Ontario and comparable jurisdictions.