扭转俄罗斯经济危机的金融工具

E. S. Ivleva, A. Rumyantseva, L. V. Tserkasevich
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的从分析经济危机发生的原因和逆转因素的角度出发,研究 1991 年至 2022 年期间俄罗斯联邦(RF)发生的经济危机,并确定克服经济活力减缓和衰退阶段的机会,包括与数字化相关的机会。通过确定危机期间的风险,揭示经济危机的原因;确定自 1991 年以来俄罗斯经济危机逆转的金融工具;确定经济体系克服经济放缓和经济活力下降阶段的机会,并使经济体系转向可持续增长。方法:采用一般科学方法,包括比较法、回顾法和类比法。文章确定了从 1991 年危机到 2022 年危机期间俄罗斯联邦经济危机的现实风险。作为经济和金融业数字化转型时期的经济增长机会,确定了创新金融技术的风险、银行业数字化的风险、保险和金融服务的风险。确定了将经济危机转化为复苏期和随后可持续增长的金融和非金融工具。任何危机不仅基于加剧和破坏其参数稳定的因素,也基于为经济进一步发展提供新机会的因素。在评估危机期间的经济动态时,应考虑到已意识到的风险、可能出现的机会和经济转机的工具,包括金融和非金融工具。金融工具可以执行特殊的管理决策,是扭转局势的工具。储备基金(2017 年前)或国家福利基金的额外国家预算支出是不确定时期的纠正性融资,与危机期间(包括特别军事行动期间)的紧急管理决策有关。监管机构的主要任务是限制已实现的内部和外部风险的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Financial instruments of crisis reversal in the Russian economy
Aim. To study the economic crises that occurred in the Russian Federation (RF) from 1991 to 2022 from the point of view of analyzing the causes of their occurrence and the factors of reversal, as well as identifying the chances of overcoming the stages of slowdown and decline in economic dynamics, including those associated with digitalization.Objectives. To reveal the causes of economic crises by identifying the risks realized during this or that crisis; to determine the financial instruments of economic crises reversal in the Russian economy since 1991; to identify the chances of the economic system to overcome the stages of slowdown and decline in economic dynamics and to turn the economic system to sustainable growth.Methods. General scientific methods, including comparative, retrospective and analogy methods, were used as methodological tools.Results. The article identifies the realized risks of economic crises in the Russian Federation, from the crisis of 1991 to the crisis of 2022. As chances of economic growth in the period of digital transformation of the economy and the financial sector, the risks of innovative financial technologies, risks of digitalization of the banking sector, risks of insurance and financial services were identified. Financial and non-financial tools to turn the economic crisis to the recovery period and subsequent sustainable growth were identified.Conclusions. Any crisis is based not only on factors that aggravate and destabilize its parameters, but also on factors that present new chances for further economic development. When assessing economic dynamics during crises, one should take into account the realized risks, possible chances and tools for economic turnaround, including financial and non-financial instruments. Financial instruments, which allow to implement extraordinary management decisions, serve as instruments of turnaround. Additional state budget expenditures from the reserve fund (until 2017) or from the national welfare fund represent corrective financing in periods of uncertainty and are associated with emergency management decisions during crises, including during a special military operation. The main task of the regulator is to limit the negative effects of realized internal and external risks.
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