面临气候变化风险的增长

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13206

Michael T. Kiley

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化将如何影响经济活动的风险？有关气候影响的研究往往侧重于对经济增长平均水平的影响。我利用将经济增长与气温联系起来的量子回归，研究了气候变化是否会使经济活动更有可能出现严重萎缩。气温对经济增长下行风险的影响是巨大的，而且在各种规格下都是稳健的。这些结果表明，气候变化对经济增长造成的风险是巨大的--气候变化可能会使经济收缩更有可能发生且更加严重，从而对经济和金融稳定及福利产生重大影响。

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Growth at risk from climate change

How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.