Economics of technology cycle time (TCT) and catch-up by latecomers: Micro-, meso-, and macro-analyses and implications

This paper provides an analytical review of the literature on the role of technology cycle time (TCT) in the catching-up process of latecomers at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. At the national level, latecomer economies follow a detour that consists of economic growth through specialization in short-TCT sectors during the catching-up phase, followed by a shift to long-TCT sectors in the post-catching-up phase. The paper then discusses the double-edged nature of TCT at the sectoral level, such that short TCT can either be a window of opportunity associated with the rapid obsolescence of existing technologies and thus low entry barriers, or another source of difficulty associated with the truncation of learning from existing technologies. Only latecomers with a certain absorptive capacity can benefit from short TCT as a window of opportunity. Finally, at the firm level, this paper discusses the issue of possible convergence in the behavior of catching-up firms towards those of mature firms in advanced economies. At all three levels, the keywords are detours and convergence. Given the barriers to entry in long-TCT sectors, latecomers pursue a strategy of detouring into short-TCT sectors. That is, instead of trying to emulate incumbents by entering long-TCT sectors, latecomers take the opposite route. Subsequently, as latecomers improve their capabilities over time, they shift their specialization from short to long TCT sectors, thereby achieving convergence in behavior and strategy at the firm, sectoral, and national levels.