21 世纪中叶俄罗斯联邦北极区温度变化和冻土融化对冻土承载力的破坏评估

IF 0.3 Q4 GEOLOGY

Moscow University Geology Bulletin Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI:10.3103/s0145875223060078

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要研究考虑了到 2050 年俄罗斯联邦北极地区（AZRF）在各种气候变暖情况下冻土承载力的变化。俄罗斯北极地区建筑物和工程结构的变形和破坏将逐渐发展。考虑到各种气候情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），到本世纪中叶，三分之一的 AZRF 领土的承载能力将下降 15%以上。俄罗斯欧洲北部的北冰洋沿岸以及亚马尔半岛和吉达半岛处于危险区域。

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A Damage Assessment of the Bearing Capacity of Frozen Grounds due to Temperature Change and Permafrost Thawing in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation by the Middle of the 21st Century

Abstract

Changes in the bearing capacity of frozen soils under various scenarios of warming in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) by 2050 are considered. Deformations and destruction of buildings and engineering structures in the Russian Arctic will be gradually developed. Taking into account the climatic scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), one-third of the AZRF territory will experience a decrease in the bearing capacity by more than 15% by the middle of the century. The Arctic coast of the European North of Russia and the Yamal and the Gyda Peninsulas are in the danger zone.

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来源期刊

Moscow University Geology Bulletin GEOLOGY-

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Moscow University Geology Bulletin is the journal that mainly publishes scientific articles, short reports of graduate students, and reviews. Publications made by the members of the Faculty of Geology of the Moscow State University and their collaborators are published. Publications encompass all branches of geology.