聚合误报专家

IF 1.2 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Economic Theory Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI:10.1007/s00199-024-01552-1

Bach Dong-Xuan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了谨慎的决策者如何汇总那些担心模型错误的专家的意见。我们使用 Cerreia-Vioglio 等人 (in：工作文件或预印本，2022 年，https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_2020103.pdf）的标准来考虑与模型误判相关的问题。在帕累托类型公理和谨慎公理下，决策者的偏好属于 Maccheroni 等人提出的变异偏好（《计量经济学》，74(6):1447-1498, 2006 年），也会考虑到模型的误规范。决策者将所有专家的结构化模型视为其对正确模型的最准确近似，对非结构化模型的惩罚少于任何专家。

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Aggregation of misspecified experts

We investigate how a cautious decision maker might aggregate opinions from experts who are concerned with model misspecification. We use Cerreia-Vioglio et al. (in: Working paper or preprint, 2022, https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_2020103.pdf) criterion to account for concerns related to model misspecification. Under a Pareto-type axiom and a cautious axiom, the decision maker, whose preference falls within the class of variational preferences proposed by Maccheroni et al. (Econometrica, 74(6):1447–1498, 2006), also takes model misspecification into account. The decision maker regards all the experts’ structured models as her most accurate approximations of the correct model and penalizes unstructured models less than any expert.

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来源期刊

Economic Theory ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

23.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of Economic Theory is to provide an outlet for research - in all areas of economics based on rigorous theoretical reasoning, and - on specific topics in mathematics which is motivated by the analysis of economic problems. Economic Theory''s scope encompasses - but is not limited to - the following fields. - classical and modern equilibrium theory - cooperative and non-cooperative game theory - macroeconomics - social choice and welfare - uncertainty and information, intertemporal economics (including dynamical systems) - public economics - international and developmental economics - financial economics, money and banking - industrial organization Economic Theory also publishes surveys if they clearly picture the basic ideas at work in some areas, the essential technical apparatus which is used and the central questions which remain open. The development of a productive dialectic between stylized facts and abstract formulations requires that economic relevance be at the forefront. Thus, correct, and innovative, mathematical analysis is not enough; it must be motivated by - and contribute to - the understanding of substantive economic problems. Officially cited as: Econ Theory