A drying climate and habitat availability drive extirpations of a southward advancing ground squirrel

Ground squirrels act as important members of grassland ecosystems by serving as both ecosystem engineers and as a prey base for carnivores. There is mounting evidence that climate change is driving ground squirrel population declines. We resurveyed 54 historical localities throughout the Wyoming Basin and western Colorado where Wyoming Ground Squirrel (Urocitellus elegans) specimens were collected to investigate if climate change was driving extirpations at these historically occupied sites. We detected extirpations at 12 sites and used binomial generalized linear models in an information-theoretic framework to investigate if climate change was associated with these extirpations. Additionally, we investigated if land cover change was associated with persistence and if land cover ameliorated or exacerbated the effects of climate change. We found that changes in climate, especially increasingly dry summer air and increasing mean summer temperatures, were associated with a reduced probability that U. elegans persisted at a historically occupied site. In addition, we found that current forest cover at a site and increasing rangeland cover at the regional level were associated with reduced probability that U. elegans persisted, although these associations were weaker than the climate associations. The effects of climate change and land cover change did not interact. Our findings build on mounting evidence that montane-associated ground squirrels throughout the Western United States are negatively impacted by climate change. The reduction in ground squirrel abundance or their extirpation due to climate change could lead to changes in ecosystem structure or reductions in trophic complexity.