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引用次数: 0
摘要
我们采用大流行病宏观经济模型来模拟 COVID-19 在自由放任和政府封锁两种情况下对各种职业的宏观经济影响。我们将病毒传播的 SIR 模型整合到简化的新古典模型中,并根据远程工作能力将职业分为两类。随后,我们评估了大流行病对国内生产总值、消费以及灵活职业和刚性职业工作时间的冲击影响。我们发现,在大流行期间,这三个变量都出现了下降,但不同健康状况的个人的消费情况各不相同。劳动力市场经历了衰退,与从事刚性职业的工人相比,从事灵活职业的工人受到的影响相对较轻。远程工作所占比例较大,虽然加剧了职业收入和工作时间之间的差距,但也减轻了经济衰退的影响。封锁政策的实施对福利产生了不利影响,这与大流行病本身类似,但对灵活职业和刚性职业的影响不同于自由放任情况下的影响。
The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on occupations
We adopt a pandemic-macroeconomic model to simulate the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on various occupations under both laissez-faire and government lockdown scenarios. We integrate a SIR model of virus transmission into a simplified neoclassical model and categorize occupations into two groups based on their ability to work remotely. Subsequently, we assess the shock impact of the pandemic on GDP, consumption, and working hours of flexible and rigid occupations. We find that these three variables declined during the pandemic, yet the consumption varied among individuals with different health status. The labour market experienced a recession, with workers in flexible occupations experiencing a relatively milder impact compared to those in rigid occupations. A larger proportion of remote work mitigated the recessionary effects, although it accentuated the disparities between occupations' income and working hours. The implementation of lockdown policies detrimentally affects welfare, similar to the pandemic itself, but the impact on flexible and rigid occupations differs from that in a laissez-faire scenario.
期刊介绍:
The Portuguese Economic Journal publishes high-quality theoretical, empirical, applied or policy-oriented research papers on any field in economics. We enforce a rigorous, fair and prompt refereeing process. The geographical reference in the name of the journal only means that the journal is an initiative of Portuguese scholars. There is no bias in favour of particular topics and issues.Officially cited as: Port Econ J