MRI-based tumor shrinkage patterns after early neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer: correlation with molecular subtypes and pathological response after therapy.

Background: MRI-based tumor shrinkage patterns (TSP) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) have been associated with pathological response. However, the understanding of TSP after early NAT remains limited. We aimed to analyze the relationship between TSP after early NAT and pathological response after therapy in different molecular subtypes.

Methods: We prospectively enrolled participants with invasive ductal breast cancers who received NAT and performed pretreatment DCE-MRI from September 2020 to August 2022. Early-stage MRIs were performed after the first (1st-MRI) and/or second (2nd-MRI) cycle of NAT. Tumor shrinkage patterns were categorized into four groups: concentric shrinkage, diffuse decrease (DD), decrease of intensity only (DIO), and stable disease (SD). Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent variables associated with pathologic complete response (pCR), and stratified analysis according to tumor hormone receptor (HR)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) disease subtype.

Results: 344 participants (mean age: 50 years, 113/345 [33%] pCR) with 345 tumors (1 bilateral) had evaluable 1st-MRI or 2nd-MRI to comprise the primary analysis cohort, of which 244 participants with 245 tumors had evaluable 1st-MRI (82/245 [33%] pCR) and 206 participants with 207 tumors had evaluable 2nd-MRI (69/207 [33%] pCR) to comprise the 1st- and 2nd-timepoint subgroup analysis cohorts, respectively. In the primary analysis, multivariate analysis showed that early DD pattern (OR = 12.08; 95% CI 3.34-43.75; p < 0.001) predicted pCR independently of the change in tumor size (OR = 1.37; 95% CI 0.94-2.01; p = 0.106) in HR⁺/HER2^- subtype, and the change in tumor size was a strong pCR predictor in HER2⁺ (OR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.22-2.13; p = 0.001) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC, OR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.22-2.11; p = 0.001). Compared with the change in tumor size, the SD pattern achieved a higher negative predictive value in HER2⁺ and TNBC. The statistical significance of complete 1st-timepoint subgroup analysis was consistent with the primary analysis.

Conclusion: The diffuse decrease pattern in HR⁺/HER2^- subtype and stable disease in HER2⁺ and TNBC after early NAT could serve as additional straightforward and comprehensible indicators of treatment response.

Trial registration: Trial registration at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ .

Registration number: ChiCTR2000038578, registered September 24, 2020.