The Delphi of ORACLE: An Expert Consensus Survey for the Development of the Observational Risk Assessment of Contractures (Longitudinal Evaluation).

Objective: Despite rising prevalence rates, no standard tool is available to identify individuals at risk of developing contractures. This study aimed to gain expert consensus on items for the development of the Observational Risk Assessment Tool for Contractures: Longitudinal Evaluation (ORACLE) for care home residents.

Design: A two-round, online modified Delphi study.

Participants: Panellists were qualified healthcare professionals with a background in physiotherapy, occupational therapy, nursing, and rehabilitation medicine.

Main outcome measures: In the first round, the experts were asked to rate the predesigned list of items on a Likert scale while in the second round, consensus was sought in the areas of disagreement identified in the previous round.

Results: The two rounds of the Delphi survey included 30 and 25 panellists, respectively. The average clinical and academic experience of the panellists was 22.2 years and 10.5 years, respectively. The panel demonstrated a high level of consensus regarding the clinical factors (10 out of 15 items); preventive care approaches (9 out of 10 items), and contextual factors (12 out of 13 items) ranging from 70% to 100%.

Conclusion: This Delphi study determined expert consensus on items to be included in a contracture risk assessment tool (ORACLE). The items were related to factors associated with joint contractures, appropriate preventive care interventions, and potentially relevant contextual factors associated with care home settings. The promise of a risk assessment tool that includes these items has the capacity to reduce the risk of contracture development or progression and to trigger timely and appropriate referrals to help prevent further loss of function and independence.