公共债务的国际关联性

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13204

Hasan Isomitdinov, Vladimir Arčabić, Junsoo Lee, Youngjin Yun, James E. Payne

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究提供了全球和地区公共债务相关性的证据，并探讨了其趋势和特征。我们根据 115 个国家的债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，采用了一个具有时变参数的贝叶斯动态因素模型。我们发现，全球因素占全球债务比率总变化的 38%，但其份额随时间推移而减少。金融开放程度越高、外部公共债务占比越大的国家越容易受到全球/地区波动的影响。国际金融一体化鼓励政府增加借贷的说法主要适用于高收入国家，在全球范围内并不成立。

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International comovements of public debt

This study presents evidence of global and regional comovements in public debt and examines their trends and features. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters based on the debt-to-GDP ratio of 115 countries. We find the global factor accounts for 38 percent of the total variation in the debt ratio worldwide, but its share decreases over time. Countries with more financial openness and a greater share of external public debt are more exposed to global/regional comovements. The assertion that international financial integration encourages higher government borrowing applies primarily to high-income countries and it does not hold globally.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.