Abundance models of endemic birds of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, northern South America, suggest small population sizes and dependence on montane elevations

Abundance measures are almost non-existent for several bird species threatened with extinction, particularly range-restricted Neotropical taxa, for which estimating population sizes can be challenging. Here we use data collected over 9 years to explore the abundance of 11 endemic birds from the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM), one of Earth’s most irreplaceable ecosystems. We established 99 transects in the “Cuchilla de San Lorenzo” Important Bird Area within native forest, early successional vegetation, and areas of transformed vegetation by human activities. A total of 763 bird counts were carried out covering the entire elevation range in the study area (~175–2,650 m). We applied hierarchical distance-sampling models to assess elevation- and habitat-related variation in local abundance and obtain values of population density and total and effective population size. Most species were more abundant in the montane elevational range (1,800–2,650 m). Habitat-related differences in abundance were only detected for 5 species, which were more numerous in either early succession, secondary forest, or transformed areas. Inferences of effective population size indicated that at least 4 endemics likely maintain populations no larger than 15,000–20,000 mature individuals. Estimates of species’ area of occupancy and effective population size were lower than most values previously described, a possible consequence of increasing anthropogenic threats. At least 4 of the endemics exceeded criteria for threatened species listing and a thorough evaluation of their extinction risk should be conducted. Population strongholds for most of the study species were located on the northern and western slopes of the SNSM between 1,500 and 2,700 m. We highlight the urgent need for facilitating effective protection of native vegetation in premontane and montane ecosystems to safeguard critical habitats for the SNSM’s endemic avifauna. Follow-up studies collecting abundance data across the SNSM are needed to obtain precise range-wide density estimations for all species.