{"title":"基于西北太平洋高分辨率集合预测的海洋热浪的未来变化","authors":"Yuma Kawakami, Hideyuki Nakano, L. Shogo Urakawa, Takahiro Toyoda, Kei Sakamoto, Shiro Nishikawa, Toru Sugiyama, Masao Kurogi, Yoichi Ishikawa, Katsunari Sato, Goro Yamanaka","doi":"10.1007/s10872-024-00714-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are oceanic conditions characterized by extremely high sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last for several days to years. Because MHWs have devastating effects on marine ecosystems and significant impacts on fisheries, understanding future MHWs is important for adapting to upcoming climate changes. In this study, we examined future changes in MHWs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (18–53ºN, 117ºE–170ºW) under two CO<sub>2</sub> emission scenarios using a high-resolution ensemble (four members for each scenario) simulation product using a high-resolution ocean model that satisfactorily resolves the Kuroshio, Kuroshio Extension, and SST fronts. Following global warming, MHWs based on a threshold in the historical period (1981–2005) will increase and intensify (i.e., occur with higher SST anomalies than before). In the historical period, the annual MHW days ranged from 20 to 34 days. Annual MHW days increase to 63–313 days (188 days–all year round) depending on the region under the high CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation (emission) scenario at the end of the twenty-first century of 2076–2100. Furthermore, we investigated the spatial details of future MHWs. Future MHWs reflect the magnitude of SST variability in addition to that of sea surface warming in the twenty-first century; future MHWs are less frequent and more intense in the subtropical–subarctic frontal zone with large SST variability than in other regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":16640,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Oceanography","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future changes in marine heatwaves based on high-resolution ensemble projections for the northwestern Pacific Ocean\",\"authors\":\"Yuma Kawakami, Hideyuki Nakano, L. Shogo Urakawa, Takahiro Toyoda, Kei Sakamoto, Shiro Nishikawa, Toru Sugiyama, Masao Kurogi, Yoichi Ishikawa, Katsunari Sato, Goro Yamanaka\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10872-024-00714-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are oceanic conditions characterized by extremely high sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last for several days to years. Because MHWs have devastating effects on marine ecosystems and significant impacts on fisheries, understanding future MHWs is important for adapting to upcoming climate changes. In this study, we examined future changes in MHWs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (18–53ºN, 117ºE–170ºW) under two CO<sub>2</sub> emission scenarios using a high-resolution ensemble (four members for each scenario) simulation product using a high-resolution ocean model that satisfactorily resolves the Kuroshio, Kuroshio Extension, and SST fronts. Following global warming, MHWs based on a threshold in the historical period (1981–2005) will increase and intensify (i.e., occur with higher SST anomalies than before). In the historical period, the annual MHW days ranged from 20 to 34 days. Annual MHW days increase to 63–313 days (188 days–all year round) depending on the region under the high CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation (emission) scenario at the end of the twenty-first century of 2076–2100. Furthermore, we investigated the spatial details of future MHWs. Future MHWs reflect the magnitude of SST variability in addition to that of sea surface warming in the twenty-first century; future MHWs are less frequent and more intense in the subtropical–subarctic frontal zone with large SST variability than in other regions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16640,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Oceanography\",\"volume\":\"90 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Oceanography\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-024-00714-y\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"OCEANOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Oceanography","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-024-00714-y","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future changes in marine heatwaves based on high-resolution ensemble projections for the northwestern Pacific Ocean
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are oceanic conditions characterized by extremely high sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last for several days to years. Because MHWs have devastating effects on marine ecosystems and significant impacts on fisheries, understanding future MHWs is important for adapting to upcoming climate changes. In this study, we examined future changes in MHWs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (18–53ºN, 117ºE–170ºW) under two CO2 emission scenarios using a high-resolution ensemble (four members for each scenario) simulation product using a high-resolution ocean model that satisfactorily resolves the Kuroshio, Kuroshio Extension, and SST fronts. Following global warming, MHWs based on a threshold in the historical period (1981–2005) will increase and intensify (i.e., occur with higher SST anomalies than before). In the historical period, the annual MHW days ranged from 20 to 34 days. Annual MHW days increase to 63–313 days (188 days–all year round) depending on the region under the high CO2 mitigation (emission) scenario at the end of the twenty-first century of 2076–2100. Furthermore, we investigated the spatial details of future MHWs. Future MHWs reflect the magnitude of SST variability in addition to that of sea surface warming in the twenty-first century; future MHWs are less frequent and more intense in the subtropical–subarctic frontal zone with large SST variability than in other regions.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Oceanography is the official journal of the Oceanographic Society of Japan and open to all oceanographers in the world. The main aim of the journal is to promote understandings of ocean systems from various aspects including physical, chemical, biological, geological oceanography as well as paleoceanography, etc. The journal welcomes research focusing on the western North Pacific and Asian coastal waters, but the study region is not limited to the Asian Pacific. The journal publishes original articles, short contributions, reviews, and correspondence in oceanography and related fields.