社会经济、人口和技术因素对致命交通事故数量影响的非线性分析

Safety Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI:10.3390/safety10010011
Nassim Sohaee, Shahram Bohluli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了各种社会经济、人口和技术因素之间的复杂联系及其对致命交通事故的影响。利用拉索多项式回归模型,本研究探讨了人口变量(包括收入、教育、失业率和家庭规模)的影响。此外,还研究了人均国内生产总值(GDP)、通货膨胀率、最低工资以及政府在交通和基础设施方面的支出等社会经济因素对致命交通事故发生的影响。本研究还调查了车辆技术进步对交通安全结果的影响。研究结果表明,某些因素,如平均水平、酒精消费、失业率、最低工资和车辆行驶里程(VMT)等,对多因素模型产生了重大影响,并在致命事故发生率中发挥了相当大的作用。研究结果对政策制定者具有重要意义,强调了采用综合方法来考虑经济指标、行为模式和交通安全结果之间相互依存关系的必要性。这项研究强调了考虑广泛的社会经济、人口和技术因素对制定有效的政策和战略以减少致命交通事故的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nonlinear Analysis of the Effects of Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Technological Factors on the Number of Fatal Traffic Accidents
This study explores the complex connections among various socioeconomic, demographic, and technological aspects and their impact on fatal traffic accidents. Utilizing the Lasso polynomial regression model, this study explores the impact of demographic variables, including income, education, unemployment rates, and family size. Additionally, socioeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, inflation rate, minimum wage, and government spending on transportation and infrastructure are examined for their impact on the occurrence of fatal accidents. This study also investigates the influence of technological advances in vehicles on the outcomes of traffic safety. The findings of this research reveal that certain factors, such as average, alcohol consumption, unemployment rate, minimum wage, and vehicle miles traveled (VMT), among others, have a substantial impact on the multifactorial model and play a considerable role in the frequency of fatal accident rates. The research results have significant implications for policymakers, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach that accounts for the interdependence of economic indicators, behavioral patterns, and traffic safety outcomes. This study underscores the importance of considering a wide range of socioeconomic, demographic, and technological factors to develop effective policies and strategies to reduce fatal traffic accidents.
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