Modeling of the dynamics of the stock and fishing of gobies (Gobiidae) in the sea of Azov in the conditions of ecological changes in the habitat

The combined stock assessment approach to estimate and forecast the biomass and fisheries of the gobies population in Azov Sea are presented. Biomass stock assessment during the period 2015–2022 performed based on Pella-Tomlinson surplus production model within aprior parametrization by JABBA package. In terms of change the control parameter (from fisheries to environmental conditions) biomass forecasting done by main biological process modelling: spawning process by Ricker’s stock-recruitment model, instant natural mortality by Charnov approximation method, population annual weight gain by relative weight assumption. The current state of gobies stock biomass in Azov Sea during 2022 is depleted, estimated on level of B2022 = 12,5 ths. t., lower that limit reference point value Blim = 14,9 ths. t. Such depleted stock status can be just partial explained by overfishing during the 2016–2019. During the forecast period, 2023–2024, there is no scenarios exists to gobies population recovery, even in total fishery prohibition.