Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region

Abstract. The Upper Rhine Graben (URG), located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, some of which are considered active, posing a potential threat to the dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. The largest historical earthquake in the region was the M6.5±0.5 Basel earthquake in 1356. Current seismicity (M>2.5 since 1960) is mostly diffuse and located within the graben. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the URG by exploring uncertainties in greater detail and revisiting a number of assumptions. We first take into account the limited evidence of neotectonic activity and then explore tectonic scenarios that have not been taken into account previously, exploring uncertainties for Mmax, its recurrence time, the b value, and the moment released aseismically or through aftershocks. Uncertainties in faults' moment deficit rates, on the observed seismic events' magnitude–frequency distribution and on the moment–area scaling law of earthquakes, are also explored. Assuming a purely dip-slip normal faulting mechanism associated with a simplified model with three main faults, Mmax maximum probability is estimated at Mw 6.1. Considering this scenario, there would be a 99 % probability that Mmax is less than 7.3. In contrast, with a strike-slip assumption associated with a four-main-fault model, consistent with recent paleoseismological studies and the present-day stress field, Mmax is estimated at Mw 6.8. Based on this scenario, there would be a 99 % probability that Mmax is less than 7.6.