Modeling and Comparing the Total Cost of Ownership of Passenger Automobiles with Conventional, Electric, and Hybrid Powertrains

The global automotive industry’s shift toward electrification hinges on battery electric vehicles (BEV) having a reduced total cost of ownership compared to traditional vehicles. Although BEVs exhibit lower operational costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, their initial acquisition expense is higher due to expensive battery packs. This study evaluates total ownership costs for four vehicle types: traditional ICE-based car, BEV, split-power hybrid, and plug-in hybrid. Unlike previous analyses comparing production vehicles, this study employs a hypothetical sedan with different powertrains for a more equitable assessment. The study uses a drive-cycle model grounded in fundamental vehicle dynamics to determine the fuel and electricity consumption for each vehicle in highway and urban conditions. These figures serve a Monte Carlo simulation, projecting a vehicle’s operating cost over a decade based on average daily distance and highway driving percentage. Results show plug-in hybrids generally offer the most economical choice. Due to the BEVs’ heavier weight and battery cost, they only become more cost-effective than plug-in hybrids after 160 km daily travel, associated with only a small percentage of drivers in the United States. Nevertheless, they remain cheaper than conventional vehicles for most distances. The study also investigates the effects of government subsidies, battery cost, and weight on overall expenses for each powertrain. It concludes that opting for less expensive, albeit heavier batteries would generally reduce EV ownership costs for consumers.