中国黑龙江省富锦市未来气候变化对大豆产量的影响及对策案例研究

IF 3.5 Q1 AGRONOMY
Yue Li, Junfei Chang, Xining Gao, Lei Zhang, Liwei Wang, Chuanyou Ren
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球气候变化对农作物的生长、发育和产量产生了巨大影响。东北地区是中国传统的大豆优势产区之一,其大豆生产对发展国内大豆产业、降低对进口大豆的依赖具有重要意义。因此,评估未来气候变化对东北地区大豆产量的影响,并提出合理的适应措施至关重要。本研究以东北黑龙江省富锦市为例,利用 DSSAT(农业技术转移决策支持系统)中的 CROPGRO 大豆模型,模拟了 2020 年代(2021-2030 年)、2030 年代(2031-2040 年)、2040 年代(2041-2050 年)和 2050 年代(2051-2060 年)四个时期在两种代表性浓度途径(RCP)情景(RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5),并进一步确定最佳农艺管理方法。结果表明,经过校准和验证的模型适用于模拟研究区域的大豆。通过分析 PRECIS 区域气候模式中未来气候情景 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 下的气象数据,我们发现黑龙江省富锦市生长季节的平均气温、累积降水量和累积太阳辐射量大多会增加。结合模型模拟结果可知,在二氧化碳施肥作用下,未来气候变化将对大豆产量产生积极影响。此外,RCP4.5(RCP8.5)下的最佳播种期和最佳补充灌溉量分别为 5 月 10 日(5 月 5 日)和 50 毫米(40 毫米)。在未来气候条件下,提前播种期和在大豆生长关键期补充灌溉等农艺管理措施将提高大豆产量,使大豆生长更能适应未来气候变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A case study on the impacts of future climate change on soybean yield and countermeasures in Fujin city of Heilongjiang province, China
Global climate change poses a great impact on crop growth, development and yield. Soybean production in Northeast China, which is one of the traditional dominant soybean production areas in China, is of great significance for developing the domestic soybean industry and reducing dependence on imported soybeans. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on soybean yield in Northeast China, and to propose reasonable adaptation measures. In this study, we took Fujin city of Heilongjiang province in Northeast China as an example, and used the CROPGRO-soybean model in DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) to simulate the impacts of future climate change on soybean yield in the four periods of the 2020s (2021-2030), 2030s (2031-2040), 2040s (2041-2050) and 2050s (2051-2060) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and further determine the best agronomic management practices. The results showed that the calibrated and validated model is suitable for simulating soybean in the study area. By analyzing the meteorological data under future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the PRECIS regional climate model, we found that the average temperature, cumulative precipitation and cumulative solar radiation would mostly increase during the growing season in Fujin city of Heilongjiang province. Combined with the model simulation results, it is shown that under the effect of CO2 fertilization, future climate change will have a positive impact on soybean yield. Compared to the baseline (1986-2005), the soybean yield would increase by 0.6% (7.4%), 3.3% (5.1%), 6.0% (16.8%) and 12.3% (20.6%) in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s and 2050s under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5).Moreover, the optimal sowing dates and the optimal supplemental irrigation amount under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) are May 10 (May 5) and 50 mm (40mm), respectively. Under future climate conditions, the agronomic management practices, such as advancing the sowing date and supplementary irrigation in the key stage of soybean growth would increase soybean yield and make soybean growth more adaptable to future climate change.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Agronomy
Frontiers in Agronomy Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
123
审稿时长
13 weeks
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