不断变化的环流类型是否会提高欧洲夏季雷暴和大冰雹的频率?

H. Ghasemifard, Pieter Groenemeijer, T. Púčik, Francesco Battaglioli
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摘要

我们研究了自 1950 年至 2020 年欧洲夏季雷暴和大冰雹频率变化中环流类型频率变化的作用,以找出它们是否是加性回归模型(AR-CHaMo)预测发生的变化的原因。为了确定环流类型,我们使用主成分分析和 K-均值聚类将每天的 500 hPa 位势高度异常场聚类为 14 种不同的模式。我们发现,AR-CHaMo 观测到的和模拟到的闪电和冰雹发生率与环流类型密切相关,在低槽下游的极向气流中和山脉的靠山一侧观测到的闪电和冰雹发生率较高。根据 AR-CHaMo 预测,1950-2020 年期间,欧洲中部地区的冰雹频率将大幅增加。在此期间,环流类型频率的变化较小,仅对 14 个群集中的 2 个群集有显著影响。如果雷电和冰雹频率仅由环流模式决定,那么它们的预期趋势都很小,相对于平均值,每十年的典型值为 1 - 3%,而 AR-CHaMo 预期的趋势在大多数地区为 4 - 10%。在许多地区,变化的符号并不一致,特别是在欧洲的俄罗斯,环流类型变得更有利于闪电和冰雹,但 AR-CHaMo 模拟的概率却在下降。我们的结论是,环流类型的变化总体上并不是雷暴和冰雹发生频率变化的原因,其中包括欧洲中部有利于大冰雹发生的条件大幅增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Do changing circulation types raise the frequency of summertime thunderstorms and large hail in Europe?
We study the role of changes in circulation type frequency on the evolution of summertime thunderstorm and large hail frequency across Europe since 1950 until 2020 to find out if they are responsible for the changes that an additive regression model (AR-CHaMo) predicts to have happened. To define circulation types, the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field on each day was clustered into 14 distinct patterns using principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We show that lightning and hail occurrence, both observed and modelled by AR-CHaMo, strongly depend on the circulation type, with a higher frequency observed in poleward flow downstream of a trough and on the lee side of mountains. AR-CHaMo predicts strong increases in hail frequency across central parts of Europe to have occurred in the 1950-2020 period. During this period, changes in circulation type frequency are small and only significant for 2 of the 14 clusters. The trends in both lightning and hail frequency to be expected if they were solely determined by circulation patterns, are small, with typical values of 1 – 3 % per decade relative to the mean, whereas the trends expected by AR-CHaMo are on the order of 4 – 10% in most areas. Across many regions, the sign of the changes does not agree in sign, in particular across European Russia where circulation types have become more favorable for lightning and hail, but a decreasing probability was modelled by AR-CHaMo. We conclude that changing circulation types are, in general, not responsible for changes in thunderstorm and hail frequency, which included the strong increase of conditions favorable for large hail in central Europe.
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