基于经验似然法的整数值 AR(1) 模型统一检验

Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106149
Jing Zhang , Bo Li , Yu Wang , Xinyi Wei , Xiaohui Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种基于经验似然法的整数值 AR(1) 模型(即 INAR(1))自回归系数检验方法。我们推导了所得到的检验统计量在零假设和备择假设下的极限分布。结果表明,无论 INAR 过程是稳定的还是不稳定的,该统计量在零假设下总是渐近呈奇平方分布,因此可以为自回归系数提供统一的推断。此外,还通过模拟和一个经验实例证明了其有限样本的性能。
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An empirical likelihood-based unified test for the integer-valued AR(1) models

In this paper, we suggest an empirical likelihood-based test for the autoregressive coefficient of an integer-valued AR(1) model, i.e., INAR(1). We derive the limit distributions of the resulting test statistic under both null and alternative hypotheses. It turns out that regardless of whether the INAR process is stable or unstable, the statistic is always chi-squared distributed asymptotically under the null hypothesis, and as a result, it can offer unified inferences for the autoregressive coefficient. The performance of its finite sample is also demonstrated using simulations and an empirical example.

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