气候变化对西班牙酿酒葡萄作物保险中冰雹风险的影响评估:线性回归和定量回归的启示

IF 2 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Risks Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI:10.3390/risks12020020
Nan Zhou, José L. Vilar-Zanón
{"title":"气候变化对西班牙酿酒葡萄作物保险中冰雹风险的影响评估:线性回归和定量回归的启示","authors":"Nan Zhou, José L. Vilar-Zanón","doi":"10.3390/risks12020020","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There is growing concern that climate change poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the insurance business. Understanding whether climate warming is a cause for an increase in claims and losses, and how this cause–effect relationship will develop in the future, are two significant open questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We quantify climate change using the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We utilize a database containing all the claims resulting from hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, the monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and the monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We attempt to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change, as measured by the SACI, explains these three dependent variables. We also provide an estimate of the increase in the monthly total losses’ Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of the SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully consider these conclusions in their decision-making process to ensure the sustainability of this line of business in the future.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hailstorm Risk in Spanish Wine Grape Crop Insurance: Insights from Linear and Quantile Regressions\",\"authors\":\"Nan Zhou, José L. Vilar-Zanón\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/risks12020020\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There is growing concern that climate change poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the insurance business. Understanding whether climate warming is a cause for an increase in claims and losses, and how this cause–effect relationship will develop in the future, are two significant open questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We quantify climate change using the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We utilize a database containing all the claims resulting from hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, the monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and the monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We attempt to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change, as measured by the SACI, explains these three dependent variables. We also provide an estimate of the increase in the monthly total losses’ Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of the SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully consider these conclusions in their decision-making process to ensure the sustainability of this line of business in the future.\",\"PeriodicalId\":21282,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Risks\",\"volume\":\"3 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Risks\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020020\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Risks","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12020020","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对保险业的可持续发展构成严重威胁,这一问题日益受到关注。了解气候变暖是否是理赔和损失增加的原因,以及这种因果关系在未来将如何发展,是两个重要的未决问题。在这篇文章中,我们将西班牙的地理区域和酿酒葡萄农作物保险中的精确风险--冰雹--具体化,从而回答这两个问题。我们使用西班牙精算气候指数(SACI)对气候变化进行量化。我们利用的数据库包含了 1990 年至 2022 年西班牙冰雹风险导致的所有索赔。利用同质化数据,我们将每月索赔数量、每月损失成本等于 1 的数量以及每月总损失作为因变量。自变量是月度西班牙精算气候指数(SACI)。我们试图利用回归和量子回归模型通过后者来解释前者。我们的主要发现是,以 SACI 衡量的气候变化可以解释这三个因变量。我们还提供了月度总损失风险值增加的估计值,该值与以 SACI 为单位的未来气候变化增加相对应。西班牙农作物保险管理者在决策过程中应仔细考虑这些结论,以确保该业务线在未来的可持续性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Hailstorm Risk in Spanish Wine Grape Crop Insurance: Insights from Linear and Quantile Regressions
There is growing concern that climate change poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the insurance business. Understanding whether climate warming is a cause for an increase in claims and losses, and how this cause–effect relationship will develop in the future, are two significant open questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We quantify climate change using the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We utilize a database containing all the claims resulting from hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, the monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and the monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We attempt to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change, as measured by the SACI, explains these three dependent variables. We also provide an estimate of the increase in the monthly total losses’ Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of the SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully consider these conclusions in their decision-making process to ensure the sustainability of this line of business in the future.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Risks
Risks Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
22.70%
发文量
205
审稿时长
11 weeks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信