通过广义运营杠杆模型预测运营收入

IF 2.1 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Sherwood Lane Lambert, Kevin Krieger, Nathan Mauck
{"title":"通过广义运营杠杆模型预测运营收入","authors":"Sherwood Lane Lambert, Kevin Krieger, Nathan Mauck","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12010011","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model\",\"authors\":\"Sherwood Lane Lambert, Kevin Krieger, Nathan Mauck\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/ijfs12010011\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45794,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Financial Studies\",\"volume\":\"6 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Financial Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12010011\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Financial Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12010011","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一个通用的、面向从业人员的经营杠杆模型,用于利用净销售额、销售成本、折旧和一般销售与管理费用预测营业收入。以往的研究将营业收入与这些项目直接挂钩;因此,我们的模型包括了构成营业收入的所有总收入和总支出。先前的研究发现,销售成本的粘性比折旧和 SG&A 的粘性 "小得多";因此,我们使用销售成本作为总可变成本的代理变量,使用折旧和 SG&A 作为粘性固定成本的代理变量。我们对教科书中的经营杠杆模型进行了新的调整,使销售额与销售成本的比率在参照期和预测期保持不变。受先前研究的启发,我们对折旧和 SG&A 进行了成本粘性调整。我们发现,与使用教科书式经营杠杆(我们模型的特例)进行预测相比,使用我们的广义经营杠杆模型可以提高下一季度和下一年度营业收入预测的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model
We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
8.70%
发文量
100
审稿时长
11 weeks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信