Isaac W. Krone, Katherine M. Magoulick, Ryan M. Yohler
{"title":"地球不会记住的一切:地理差距如何构建多样性和物种灭绝的记录","authors":"Isaac W. Krone, Katherine M. Magoulick, Ryan M. Yohler","doi":"10.1017/pab.2023.34","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We know the fossil record is incomplete, but just how much biodiversity does it miss? We produce the first geographically controlled estimate by comparing the geographic ranges of 34,266 modern tetrapods with a map of the world's sedimentary basins. By modeling which tetrapods live within sedimentary basins, we produce a first-order estimate of what might be found in the fossil record of the future. In this record, nearly 30% of tetrapod species have almost no chance of fossilizing, and more stringent criteria for fossilization exclude far more diversity. This geographically structured fossil record preserves disparate patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in different tetrapod groups and underpreserves projected extinctions. For the globally threatened amphibians, the magnitude of the extinction of all endangered species would be underestimated by 66–98% in our future record. These results raise profound questions about the structure of the fossil record. Is it capable of recording major origination and extinction events on land? Have swaths of terrestrial diversity gone unrecorded based on geography alone? There are chapters of Earth history that paleontologists can never hope to know, but what is missing, and why?","PeriodicalId":54646,"journal":{"name":"Paleobiology","volume":"130 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"All the Earth will not remember: how geographic gaps structure the record of diversity and extinction\",\"authors\":\"Isaac W. Krone, Katherine M. Magoulick, Ryan M. Yohler\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/pab.2023.34\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We know the fossil record is incomplete, but just how much biodiversity does it miss? We produce the first geographically controlled estimate by comparing the geographic ranges of 34,266 modern tetrapods with a map of the world's sedimentary basins. By modeling which tetrapods live within sedimentary basins, we produce a first-order estimate of what might be found in the fossil record of the future. In this record, nearly 30% of tetrapod species have almost no chance of fossilizing, and more stringent criteria for fossilization exclude far more diversity. This geographically structured fossil record preserves disparate patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in different tetrapod groups and underpreserves projected extinctions. For the globally threatened amphibians, the magnitude of the extinction of all endangered species would be underestimated by 66–98% in our future record. These results raise profound questions about the structure of the fossil record. Is it capable of recording major origination and extinction events on land? Have swaths of terrestrial diversity gone unrecorded based on geography alone? There are chapters of Earth history that paleontologists can never hope to know, but what is missing, and why?\",\"PeriodicalId\":54646,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Paleobiology\",\"volume\":\"130 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Paleobiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2023.34\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Paleobiology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2023.34","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
All the Earth will not remember: how geographic gaps structure the record of diversity and extinction
We know the fossil record is incomplete, but just how much biodiversity does it miss? We produce the first geographically controlled estimate by comparing the geographic ranges of 34,266 modern tetrapods with a map of the world's sedimentary basins. By modeling which tetrapods live within sedimentary basins, we produce a first-order estimate of what might be found in the fossil record of the future. In this record, nearly 30% of tetrapod species have almost no chance of fossilizing, and more stringent criteria for fossilization exclude far more diversity. This geographically structured fossil record preserves disparate patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in different tetrapod groups and underpreserves projected extinctions. For the globally threatened amphibians, the magnitude of the extinction of all endangered species would be underestimated by 66–98% in our future record. These results raise profound questions about the structure of the fossil record. Is it capable of recording major origination and extinction events on land? Have swaths of terrestrial diversity gone unrecorded based on geography alone? There are chapters of Earth history that paleontologists can never hope to know, but what is missing, and why?
期刊介绍:
Paleobiology publishes original contributions of any length (but normally 10-50 manuscript pages) dealing with any aspect of biological paleontology. Emphasis is placed on biological or paleobiological processes and patterns, including macroevolution, extinction, diversification, speciation, functional morphology, bio-geography, phylogeny, paleoecology, molecular paleontology, taphonomy, natural selection and patterns of variation, abundance, and distribution in space and time, among others. Taxonomic papers are welcome if they have significant and broad applications. Papers concerning research on recent organisms and systems are appropriate if they are of particular interest to paleontologists. Papers should typically interest readers from more than one specialty. Proposals for symposium volumes should be discussed in advance with the editors.