基于多项式 Logistic 回归方法的中国空气质量长期评价系统预测

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Geography, Environment, Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI:10.24057/2071-9388-2023-2719

Y. He, D. Qi, V. M. Bure

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在通过多项式逻辑回归方法，根据空气质量指数（AQI）和空气质量综合指数（AQCI）评估中国的长期空气质量。所建立的两个模型采用了不同的因变量--空气质量指数和空气质量综合指数，同时保留了相同的控制变量--国内生产总值（GDP）和一次污染物。明确地说，首要污染物与六个污染物因子中的一个或多个污染物相关：O3、PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2 和 CO。模型质量验证是我们分析的一个组成部分。我们使用中国的真实空气质量数据对结果进行了说明。所开发的模型被用于预测中国 31 个省会城市从 2013 年到 2019 年每年的空气质量指数和 ACQI。所有计算和测试均使用 R-studio 进行。总之，两个模型都能预测中国的长期空气质量。使用 ROC 曲线对 AQI 和 AQCI 模型进行比较后发现，AQCI 模型比 AQI 模型显示出更大的显著性。

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Long-Term Air Quality Evaluation System Prediction In China Based On Multinomial Logistic Regression Method

The aim of this article evaluate the long-term air quality in China based on the air quality index (AQI) and the air quality composite index (AQCI) though the multinomial logistic regression method. The two developed models employ different dependent variables, AQI and AQCI, while maintaining the same controlled variables gross domestic product (GDP), and a primary pollutant. Explicitly, the primary impurity is associated with one or more contaminants among six pollutant factors: O3, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO. Model quality verification is an integral part of our analysis. The results are illustrate d using real air quality data from China. The developed models were applied to predict AQI and ACQI for the 31 capital cities in China from 2013 to 2019 annually. All calculations and tests are conducted using R-studio. In summary, both models are able to predict China’s long-term air quality. A comparison of the AQI and AQCI models using the ROC curve reveals that the AQCI model exhibits greater significance than the AQI model.

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来源期刊

Geography, Environment, Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is founded by the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, The Russian Geographical Society and by the Institute of Geography of RAS. It is the official journal of Russian Geographical Society, and a fully open access journal. Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” publishes original, innovative, interdisciplinary and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment scientific field. This goal covers a broad spectrum of scientific research areas (physical-, social-, economic-, cultural geography, environmental sciences and sustainable development) and also considers contemporary and widely used research methods, such as geoinformatics, cartography, remote sensing (including from space), geophysics, geochemistry, etc. “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is the only original English-language journal in the field of geography and environmental sciences published in Russia. It is supposed to be an outlet from the Russian-speaking countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the Russian-speaking countries regarding environmental and Earth sciences, geography and sustainability. The main sections of the journal are the theory of geography and ecology, the theory of sustainable development, use of natural resources, natural resources assessment, global and regional changes of environment and climate, social-economical geography, ecological regional planning, sustainable regional development, applied aspects of geography and ecology, geoinformatics and ecological cartography, ecological problems of oil and gas sector, nature conservations, health and environment, and education for sustainable development. Articles are freely available to both subscribers and the wider public with permitted reuse.