太阳活动的长期演变和对后续太阳周期的预测

Peixin Luo, Baolin Tan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

太阳活动对人类航空航天、卫星通信与导航、深空探测及相关科学研究等现代高科技系统具有重大影响。因此,研究太阳活动的长期演变趋势,准确预测未来的太阳周期备受期待。这项工作通过对迄今为止记录最长的 323 年太阳黑子年平均相对数(ASN)序列数据进行小波变换和经验函数拟合,果断地验证了太阳世纪周期的存在,并确认其长度约为 104.0 年,且其幅度在数百年的时间尺度上呈小幅上升趋势。根据这一长期演变趋势,我们用相近的预测方法预测了太阳周期 25 和 26。太阳周期 25 的最大 ASN 约为 146.7 ± 33.40,明显强于太阳周期 24。峰值年大约出现在 2024 年,周期长度约为 11 ± 1 年。至于太阳周期 26,它将于 2030 年左右开始,在 2035 至 2036 年之间达到最大值,最大 ASN 约为 133.0 ± 3.200,周期长度约为 10 年。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Long-term evolution of solar activity and prediction of the followingsolar cycles
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend of solar activity and accurately predicting the future solar cycles is highly anticipated. Through wavelet transform and empirical function fitting of the longest recorded data of the annual average relative sunspot number (ASN) series of 323 years to date, this work decisively verified the existence of the solar century cycles and confirmed that its length is about 104.0 years, and the magnitude has a slightly increasing trend on the time scale of several hundreds of years. Based on this long-term evolutionary trend, we predicted solar cycle 25 and 26 by using phase similar prediction methods. As for the solar cycle 25, its maximum ASN will be about 146.7 ± 33.40, obviously stronger than solar cycle 24. The peak year will occur approximately in 2024, and the cycle length is about 11 ± 1 years. As for the solar cycle 26, it will start around 2030, reach the maximum between 2035 and 2036, with maximum ASN of about 133.0 ± 3.200, and the cycle length is about 10 years.
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