土耳其选举行为的社会和经济决定因素

Ozge Kozal, Mehmet Karacuka, Justus Haucap
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的在本研究中,作者旨在全面调查土耳其投票行为的决定因素,并特别关注中心-边缘辩论的动态。作者主要关注正义与发展党(JDP/AKP)主导选举期间的地区投票模式。作者采用随机效应广义最小二乘法(GLS)方法,分析了涵盖所有 81 个省(NUTS III 地区)的四次关键议会选举(2007、2011、2015 和 2018 年)的选举数据。作者分别考察了议会中四个主要政党的投票动态:日本民主党/韩国人民党、共和人民党/中国共产党、民族主义运动党(NMP/MHP)和人民民主党(PDP/HDP)。作者致力于全面了解土耳其背景下的社会经济裂痕、经济表现、政党结盟和社会动态如何影响选民偏好,从而弥补现有文献的不足。作者利用随机效应 GLS 方法来考虑异方差和时间效应。通过纳入 2015 年 6 月和 11 月的选举,可以全面分析土耳其投票行为不断变化的动态。当采用集合 OLS 和固定效应 OLS 技术进行控制时,结果仍然是稳健的。研究结果研究结果显示,经济表现,特别是经济增长,在 JDP/AKP 党的持续主导地位中发挥了关键作用。选民将日本民主党的偏好与经济增长紧密联系在一起,从而在经济繁荣时期获得更高的投票率。除经济增长外,农业在地区 GDP 中的份额、女性文盲率、老龄人口比率、国内净移民、恐怖主义和政党结盟也是土耳其的影响因素。此外,社会文化群体之间的差异以及东西方二分法似乎也是揭示社会裂痕对理解土耳其选举选择影响的重要因素。 原创性/价值 本研究通过对土耳其选举行为进行全面的多维分析,对现有文献做出了贡献,重点研究了联合民主党/人民党占主导地位时期的选举行为。本研究的主要贡献在于从多维角度分析了所有主要政党的权力基础,并考虑了以往研究中未系统分析过的关键选民选择理论(分裂、政党结盟和经济表现回溯投票)。本研究的主要问题是探讨哪些因素会影响土耳其的投票行为,以及如何解释联合民主党霸权下的中心-外围或东部-西部地区投票行为的动态变化。本研究的贡献不仅在于对面板数据方法进行了实证检验,还在于对四个主要政党进行了全面分析。在现有文献研究的基础上,本研究试图通过对议会中四个主要政党--日本民主党/韩国人民党、人民党/中央政治局、全国人民运动委员会/马其顿人民党和人民民主党/乌兹别克民主党--的投票动态进行逐一研究,从而扩展对这些政党投票动态的理解,从而扩大以往研究的范围。本研究不仅对面板数据方法进行了实证检验,还对四大政党进行了全面分析,旨在为本研究做出贡献。此外,本研究还单独纳入了 2015 年选举,并采用了面板数据方法,通过捕捉土耳其投票行为不断变化的动态,丰富了分析内容。研究强调了社会经济因素、经济表现和社会裂痕对选民在主导政党统治背景下做出选择的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey
PurposeIn this study the authors aim to comprehensively investigate the determinants of voting behavior in Turkey, with a specific focus on the dynamics of the center-periphery debate. Mainly, the authors focus on regional voting patterns during the period that is dominated by the Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in the elections. The authors apply the random effects generalized least squares (GLS) methodology, and analyze electoral data covering four pivotal parliamentary elections (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) across all 81 provinces (NUTS III regions). The authors individually examine voting dynamics of the four major parties in parliament: the JDP/AKP, the Republican People's Party (RPP/CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP/MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP/HDP). The authors contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how socioeconomic cleavages, economic performance, party alignment and social dynamics shape voter preferences in the Turkish context, thereby addressing gaps in the existing literature.Design/methodology/approachThis research employs an ecological study of Turkish NUTS III sub-regions, covering national elections from 2007 to 2018. The authors utilize the random effects GLS method to account for heteroscedasticity and time effects. The inclusion of the June and November 2015 elections enables a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Turkish voting behavior. The results remain robust when applying pooled OLS and fixed effect OLS techniques for control.FindingsThe study's findings reveal that economic performance, specifically economic growth, plays a pivotal role in the sustained dominance of the JDP/AKP party. Voters closely associate JDP preference with economic growth, resulting in higher voting shares during periods of economic prosperity. Along with economic growth; share of agriculture in regions' GDP, female illiteracy rate, old population rate, net domestic migration, terrorism and party alignment are also influential factors in the Turkish case. Furthermore, differences among sociocultural groups, and East–West dichotomy seem to be important factors that reveal the impact of social cleavages to understand electoral choice in Turkey.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of electoral behavior in Turkey, focusing on the JDP/AKP dominance period. The main contribution of this study is its multidimensional perspective on the power bases of all main parties, considering key voter choice theories (cleavages, party alignment and retrospective economic performance voting) that have not been systematically analyzed in prior research. The main research question of this study is to examine which factors affect voting behavior in Turkey and how the dynamics of center-periphery or eastern-western region voting behavior under the JDP hegemony can be explained. The contribution of this study consists not only in its empirical testing of panel data approaches but also in its comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Building upon existing studies in the literature, this research seeks to extend the understanding of voting dynamics for the four main parties in the parliament — JDP/AKP, RPP/CHP, NMP/MHP and PPDP/HDP — by delving into their dynamics individually, thereby expanding the scope of previous studies. This study aims to make a contribution by not only empirically testing panel data approaches but also conducting a comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Furthermore, the separate inclusion of the 2015 elections and utilization of a panel data approach enrich the analysis by capturing the evolving dynamics of Turkish voting behavior. The study underscores the significance of socioeconomic factors, economic performance and social cleavages for voters' choices within the context of a dominant party rule.
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