洪水类型频率的时间变化及其对洪水统计的影响

IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Svenja Fischer, Andreas H. Schumann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

标准的洪水频率分析假定洪水条件是静止的,即洪水分布不随时间变化。然而,气候的长期变化和人为影响对这一假设提出了质疑。因此,越来越多的非稳态模型被用于洪水频率分析。然而,这些模型大多只考虑洪峰量级的变化点或趋势,而忽略了基本洪水基因的变化。最近的气候报告表明,某些洪水生成因素的频率发生了变化,例如暴雨事件的频率增加。在本研究中,洪水类型被用来检测洪水机制的气象驱动因素的变化。通过对基于基尼均值差的方差进行稳健的变化点检验,发现了某些洪水类型发生频率的显著变化。在中欧的许多集水区,可以观察到一种明显的趋势,即暴雨引发的洪水更加频繁,而融雪引发的洪水较少。重点特别放在冬季洪水的变化上,冬季洪水发生的频率降低,取而代之的是降雨引发的洪水。这些变化对洪水统计数据的影响通过几种方法得到了证明。虽然洪峰的规模不会(必然)发生变化,但洪水频率的变化会导致洪水量级的变化。通过对年度序列进行传统统计分析得出的定量估计值与基于类型的洪水统计结果进行了比较。结果表明,标准模型受这些变化的影响更大,因为它们无法弥补单个洪水类型频率的变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Temporal changes in the frequency of flood types and their impact on flood statistics

Temporal changes in the frequency of flood types and their impact on flood statistics

Standard flood frequency analysis assumes stationarity of flood conditions, i.e., no change of the distribution over time. However, long-term variability in climate and anthropogenic impacts question this assumption. Consequently, more and more non-stationary models are considered in flood frequency analyses. Yet, most of them only consider a change-point or trend in the magnitude of flood peaks while ignoring changes in the underlying flood geneses. Recent climate reports suggest such a change in frequency of certain flood-generating factors, e.g., the increase of frequency of heavy-rainfall events. In this study, flood types are applied to detect changes in the meteorological drivers of flood regimes. By application of a robust change-point test for the variance based on Gini’s Mean Difference, significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of certain flood types are detected. A clear tendency to more frequent heavy-rainfall floods and less snowmelt-induced floods is observed for many catchments in Central Europe. A special focus is laid on the shifts in winter floods, which occur less often and are replaced by rainfall-driven floods. The impacts of such changes on flood statistics are demonstrated by several approaches. Though the magnitude of flood peaks does not (necessarily) change, the changing frequency of floods leads to changing flood quantiles. Quantile estimations from traditional statistical analyses of annual series are compared to results of type-based flood statistics. It is shown how standard models are more affected by these changes because they are not able to compensate for changes in the frequency of individual flood types.

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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology X
Journal of Hydrology X Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
2.50%
发文量
20
审稿时长
25 weeks
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