What goes up must come down? The effect of ‘2020’ on university students' academic performance trajectories

Using longitudinal, institutional data, we estimate the effects of pandemic-related closures on the academic performance trajectories of undergraduate students at a university in South Africa. Leveraging data from both the 2020 and 2021 academic years, and using difference-in-difference models, we find that performance gains made in 2020 are reversed in 2021, with performance dropping relative to pre-pandemic trends. Moreover, we find a widening achievement gap between students from differing socio-economic backgrounds, suggesting household inequalities played out in student performance differentials to a greater extent in 2021—despite the reopening of campus residences that year. This result persists even when accounting for the fact that dropout rates in 2021 are substantially lower compared with previous years. Together, results suggest that the improvements observed in 2020 did not reflect true learning gains and support hypotheses that a reduction in content taught, increased marker leniency and a reduction in credit loads were likely drivers of improved performance in the 2020 academic year.