集合预报系统中降水量最优量化预报的研究与应用

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Lianglyu Chen, Yu Xia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

降水定量在集合预报系统中得到广泛应用。目前,通常的做法是直接向用户提供不同定量值对应的降水量,这将使用户难以提取可靠的预报信息。因此,本研究探讨了使用 WRF V4.0 模型构建的集合预报系统中降水量的统计最优(以威胁分值(TS)为指标)定量。主要结论如下:小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨和大暴雨预报的威胁分数最优量级分别为 40%-60%、60%-70%、60%-80%、70%-80% 和 80%。总体而言,随着降水量的增加或预报准备时间的延长,最优量值也在增加。所有最优定量预报产品的 TS 值都高于相应的对照预报、集合平均值预报和概率匹配集合平均值预报产品。由不同降水量级的最优定量预报组合而成的威胁分值-最优定量预报合并产品在统计验证和案例研究中较其他产品具有明显优势,在未来的业务实施中具有良好的应用前景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Study and application on the optimal quantile forecast of precipitation in an ensemble forecast system

Study and application on the optimal quantile forecast of precipitation in an ensemble forecast system

Quantiles of precipitation are widely used in ensemble forecast systems. At present, the common practice is to provide precipitation amounts corresponding to different quantiles to users directly, which will make it difficult for users to extract reliable forecast information. Therefore, this study investigates the statistically optimal (using threat score (TS) as a metric) quantiles of precipitation in an ensemble forecast system constructed using the WRF V4.0 model. The main conclusions are as follows: The threat-score-optimal quantiles for light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, rainstorm, and heavy rainstorm forecasts are 40%–60%, 60%–70%, 60%–80%, 70%–80%, and 80%, respectively. Overall, the optimal quantile increases with the rise in precipitation magnitude or the extension of forecast lead time. All the optimal quantile forecast products have higher TS than the corresponding control forecast, ensemble mean forecast, and probability-matched ensemble mean forecast products. The merged threat-score-optimal quantile forecast product formed by combining the optimal quantile forecasts of different precipitation magnitudes shows obvious advantages over other products in statistical verification and case studies, and it shows good potential to be operationally implemented in the future.

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来源期刊
Meteorological Applications
Meteorological Applications 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
62
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The aim of Meteorological Applications is to serve the needs of applied meteorologists, forecasters and users of meteorological services by publishing papers on all aspects of meteorological science, including: applications of meteorological, climatological, analytical and forecasting data, and their socio-economic benefits; forecasting, warning and service delivery techniques and methods; weather hazards, their analysis and prediction; performance, verification and value of numerical models and forecasting services; practical applications of ocean and climate models; education and training.
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