Urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio diurnal variation rate predicts outcomes in idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

Background: Idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) diurnal variation rate calculated by spot urinary protein test predicts 1-year nephrotic outcomes as a biomarker of proteinuria severity in patients with IMN.

Methods: Patients' baseline demographics, blood and urinary biomarkers, and clinical and pathological characteristics were collected retrospectively. Urine samples were collected at 7:00 (before breakfast) and 19:00 (after dinner) to calculate the UACR diurnal variation rate. A prediction model for no remission (NR) was developed statistically based on differences between prognosis groups. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate prediction abilities and determine optimal cut-off points of the model and UACR diurnal variation rate alone.

Results: The formula for calculating the probability of NR was exp(L)/(1 + exp(L)), where the linear predictor L =  - 22.038 + 0.134 × Age (years) + 0.457 × 24-h urinary protein + 0.511 × blood urea nitrogen (BUN) + 0.014 × serum uric acid (SUA) + 2.411 if glomerular sclerosis + 0.816 × fasting blood glucose (FBG)-0.039 × UACR diurnal variation rate (%). Optimal cut-off points for NR prediction by the final model and UACR diurnal variation rate alone were 0.331 and 58.5%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.889 and 0.859 for the final model, and 0.926 and 0.676 for UACR diurnal variation rate alone.

Conclusion: UACR diurnal variation using spot urinary protein is a simpler way to predict nephrotic outcomes and is a highly sensitive screening tool for identifying patients who should undergo further comprehensive risk assessment.