G. A. Avanesov, B. S. Zhukov, M. V. Mikhailov, B. G. Sherstyukov
{"title":"地球气候的宇宙调节器","authors":"G. A. Avanesov, B. S. Zhukov, M. V. Mikhailov, B. G. Sherstyukov","doi":"10.1134/S0038094623060011","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>A discussion is presented of the effects generated by the imbalance between the insolation energy of polar-day zones and the radiation energy of polar-night zones on multicentennial changes in the Earth’s climate. The dependence of this imbalance on the Earth’s orbital parameters is determined. The energy imbalance curves are compared with the known temperature curves for the polar regions, which have been estimated from the results of an analysis of ice cores taken in Antarctica and Greenland. The curves clearly reveal a difference between the contributions of cosmic and terrestrial factors to the temperature profiles for the regions in question and demonstrate a synchronicity of these factors. Algorithms are obtained for calculating the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the Earth’s polar caps relative to their averages. The results obtained within the assumptions taken in this work enable predictions to be made about the development of the current global warming and about changes in the size of the Arctic and Antarctic polar caps. It is predicted that over the next three millennia, changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters will contribute to the slow melting of the northern polar cap. Then, the trend for a new growth of the northern polar cap will again manifest itself. In the Southern Hemisphere, a trend towards increased glaciation has already formed. Influenced by the cosmic factor, it will intensify over the next 20 000 years.</p>","PeriodicalId":778,"journal":{"name":"Solar System Research","volume":"57 6","pages":"533 - 543"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Cosmic Regulators of the Earth’s Climate\",\"authors\":\"G. A. Avanesov, B. S. Zhukov, M. V. Mikhailov, B. G. Sherstyukov\",\"doi\":\"10.1134/S0038094623060011\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>A discussion is presented of the effects generated by the imbalance between the insolation energy of polar-day zones and the radiation energy of polar-night zones on multicentennial changes in the Earth’s climate. The dependence of this imbalance on the Earth’s orbital parameters is determined. The energy imbalance curves are compared with the known temperature curves for the polar regions, which have been estimated from the results of an analysis of ice cores taken in Antarctica and Greenland. The curves clearly reveal a difference between the contributions of cosmic and terrestrial factors to the temperature profiles for the regions in question and demonstrate a synchronicity of these factors. Algorithms are obtained for calculating the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the Earth’s polar caps relative to their averages. The results obtained within the assumptions taken in this work enable predictions to be made about the development of the current global warming and about changes in the size of the Arctic and Antarctic polar caps. It is predicted that over the next three millennia, changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters will contribute to the slow melting of the northern polar cap. Then, the trend for a new growth of the northern polar cap will again manifest itself. In the Southern Hemisphere, a trend towards increased glaciation has already formed. Influenced by the cosmic factor, it will intensify over the next 20 000 years.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":778,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Solar System Research\",\"volume\":\"57 6\",\"pages\":\"533 - 543\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Solar System Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0038094623060011\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar System Research","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0038094623060011","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A discussion is presented of the effects generated by the imbalance between the insolation energy of polar-day zones and the radiation energy of polar-night zones on multicentennial changes in the Earth’s climate. The dependence of this imbalance on the Earth’s orbital parameters is determined. The energy imbalance curves are compared with the known temperature curves for the polar regions, which have been estimated from the results of an analysis of ice cores taken in Antarctica and Greenland. The curves clearly reveal a difference between the contributions of cosmic and terrestrial factors to the temperature profiles for the regions in question and demonstrate a synchronicity of these factors. Algorithms are obtained for calculating the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the Earth’s polar caps relative to their averages. The results obtained within the assumptions taken in this work enable predictions to be made about the development of the current global warming and about changes in the size of the Arctic and Antarctic polar caps. It is predicted that over the next three millennia, changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters will contribute to the slow melting of the northern polar cap. Then, the trend for a new growth of the northern polar cap will again manifest itself. In the Southern Hemisphere, a trend towards increased glaciation has already formed. Influenced by the cosmic factor, it will intensify over the next 20 000 years.
期刊介绍:
Solar System Research publishes articles concerning the bodies of the Solar System, i.e., planets and their satellites, asteroids, comets, meteoric substances, and cosmic dust. The articles consider physics, dynamics and composition of these bodies, and techniques of their exploration. The journal addresses the problems of comparative planetology, physics of the planetary atmospheres and interiors, cosmochemistry, as well as planetary plasma environment and heliosphere, specifically those related to solar-planetary interactions. Attention is paid to studies of exoplanets and complex problems of the origin and evolution of planetary systems including the solar system, based on the results of astronomical observations, laboratory studies of meteorites, relevant theoretical approaches and mathematical modeling. Alongside with the original results of experimental and theoretical studies, the journal publishes scientific reviews in the field of planetary exploration, and notes on observational results.