利率上调对消费者通胀预期的影响:知情和遵从的作用

Edward S. Knotek, James Mitchell, Mathieu O. Pedemonte, Taylor Shiroff
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了与提高联邦基金利率相关的货币政策沟通如何对消费者的通胀预期产生因果影响。在一项大规模、多波随机对照试验(RCT)中,我们发现,平均而言,微弱的证据表明,政策变化的沟通会降低消费者的中期通胀预期。然而,从事前对货币政策的知情程度和事后对信息处理的遵从程度来看,不同人口群体的信息存在系统性差异。货币政策沟通对那些之前没有听说过货币政策消息,并且花了足够时间阅读信息的人有更大的影响,这意味着可以通过针对公众中的特定群体来增加沟通的影响。我们的研究结果表明,在通胀环境下,消费者预期提高利率会降低通胀。更广泛地说,我们的结果强调了在实证宏观经济学中使用 RCT 时衡量受访者的信息集及其对治疗的依从性的重要性,以更好地理解异质性治疗效果的证据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance
We study how monetary policy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers' inflation expectations. In a large-scale, multi-wave randomized controlled trial (RCT), we find weak evidence on average that communicating policy changes lowers consumers' medium-term inflation expectations. However, information differs systematically across demographic groups, in terms of ex ante informedness about monetary policy and ex post compliance with the information treatment. Monetary policy communications have a much stronger effect on people who had not previously heard news about monetary policy and who take sufficient time to read the treatment, implying scope to increase the impact of communications by targeting specific groups of the general public. Our findings show that, in an inflationary environment, consumers expect that raising interest rates will lower inflation. More generally, our results emphasize the importance of measuring both respondents' information sets and their compliance with treatment when using RCTs in empirical macroeconomics, to better understand the well-documented evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects.
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