原油、黄金和美元是否有助于比特币投资决策?ANN-DCC-GARCH 方法

Yadong Liu, Nathee Naktnasukanjn, Anukul Tamprasirt, Tanarat Rattanadamrongaksorn
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的比特币 (BTC) 与原油、黄金和美元等全球金融资产密切相关。特别是在 COVID-19 大流行爆发之后,BTC 与全球金融资产的关系变得更加密切。本文旨在借助全球金融资产制定 BTC 投资决策。本研究通过将动态条件相关广义自回归条件异方差(DCC-GARCH)模型与人工神经网络(ANN)相结合,为 BTC 交易提出了一个更准确的预测模型。DCC-GARCH 模型为人工神经网络提供了重要的输入信息,包括动态相关性和波动性。为有效分析数据,本研究将数据分为两个时期:COVID-19 爆发前和爆发期间。实证结果表明,与原油和美元相比,BTC 和黄金具有最高的正相关性,而 BTC 和美元具有动态负相关性。更重要的是,ANN-DCC-GARCH 模型在 COVID-19 大流行爆发前的累计收益率为 318%,在 COVID-19 大流行期间可减少 50%的损失。此外,风险规避者可以在 2022 年将损失转化为约 20% 的利润。原创性/价值实证分析为投资者和金融机构进行 BTC 投资决策提供了技术支持和决策参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Do crude oil, gold and the US dollar contribute to Bitcoin investment decisions? An ANN-DCC-GARCH approach
PurposeBitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related, particularly since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to formulate BTC investment decisions with the aid of global financial assets.Design/methodology/approachThis study suggests a more accurate prediction model for BTC trading by combining the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model with the artificial neural network (ANN). The DCC-GARCH model offers significant input information, including dynamic correlation and volatility, to the ANN. To analyze the data effectively, the study divides it into two periods: before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Each period is then further divided into a training set and a prediction set.FindingsThe empirical results show that BTC and gold have the highest positive correlation compared with crude oil and the USD, while BTC and the USD have a dynamic and negative correlation. More importantly, the ANN-DCC-GARCH model had a cumulative return of 318% before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and can decrease loss by 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the risk-averse can turn a loss into a profit of about 20% in 2022.Originality/valueThe empirical analysis provides technical support and decision-making reference for investors and financial institutions to make investment decisions on BTC.
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