气候和非气候因素对作物生产有何影响?土耳其的证据

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Veli Anıl Çakan, Tolga Tipi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用 1980 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据研究了气候变化对土耳其农作物生产的影响。我们的模型涵盖了气候因素和非气候因素,包括平均降水量、平均气温、种植面积、化肥使用量和汽柴油消耗量。在检验了初步检验结果后,我们使用了山本多田因果检验和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整方法来分析变量之间的因果关系和长期关系。ARDL 边界检验的结果证实了作物产量与气候和非气候因子之间的协整关系。长期估计结果表明,降水量、耕地面积、单位耕地化肥消耗量和单位耕地农用汽柴油使用量每增加 1%,产量分别增加 0.59%、0.43%、0.33% 和 0.07%。此外,温度每上升 1%,长期产量会减少 0.19%。通过因果关系分析,我们发现变量之间存在多种单向因果关系。平均气温是耕地和汽柴油使用量的格兰杰原因,而耕地则是作物产量的格兰杰原因。鉴于这些有关气候变化对作物生产不利影响的结果,各国政府显然应优先努力解决气候变化的原因。此外,实施诸如推广抗旱栽培品种和采用高效灌溉技术等适应战略也至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

What are the Implications of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Crop Production? Evidence from Turkey

What are the Implications of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Crop Production? Evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the effect of climate change on crop production in Turkey using time series data from 1980 to 2019. Our model covers both climatic and non-climatic factors, including average precipitation, average temperature, cultivation area, fertilizer use, and gas-diesel consumption. After checking the results of our preliminary tests, we used the Toda–Yamamoto causality test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to analyze causality and long-run relationships among variables. The outcomes of the ARDL bounds test confirm the cointegration between crop production with climatic and non-climatic factors. The long-run estimation results demonstrate that a 1% increase in precipitation, cropland, fertilizer consumption per cropland, and agricultural gas-diesel oil use per cropland increases production by 0.59%, 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.07%, respectively. Furthermore, a 1% temperature increase reduces production by 0.19% in the long run. Through causality analysis, we found multiple unidirectional causal relationships between variables. While average temperature is the Granger cause of cropland and gas-diesel use, cropland is the Granger cause of crop production. Given these concerning results regarding the detrimental impact of climate change on crop production, it is evident that governments should prioritize their efforts to tackle the causes of climate change. Furthermore, implementing adaptation strategies such as promoting drought-resistant cultivars and adopting efficient irrigation techniques is crucial.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
104
审稿时长
1.7 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of Environmental Research is a multidisciplinary journal concerned with all aspects of environment. In pursuit of these, environmentalist disciplines are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience. International Journal of Environmental Research publishes original research papers, research notes and reviews across the broad field of environment. These include but are not limited to environmental science, environmental engineering, environmental management and planning and environmental design, urban and regional landscape design and natural disaster management. Thus high quality research papers or reviews dealing with any aspect of environment are welcomed. Papers may be theoretical, interpretative or experimental.
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