美联储打破了菲利普斯曲线吗?锚定通胀预期的理论与证据

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Brent H. Bundick, A. L. Smith
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在长期通胀预期漂移的宏观经济模型中,通胀预期的锚定表现为两个可检验的预测。首先,对远期通胀的预期不应再对当前通胀的消息做出反应。其次,更好的锚定通胀预期会削弱失业率与通胀率之间的关系,使还原形式的菲利普斯曲线趋于平缓。我们对这两项预测进行了评估,发现美联储先是通过《经济预测摘要》,后来又在 2012 年宣布 2% 的目标,传达了数字通胀目标,从而更好地锚定了通胀预期。此外,美国的通胀预期在 COVID-19 大流行的波动中保持稳定。相比之下,类似的分析表明,尽管日本采用了数字通胀目标,但没有证据表明其通胀锚定。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory & Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations
In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation expectations weaken the relationship between unemployment and inflation, flattening the reduced-form Phillips curve. We evaluate both predictions and find that the Federal Reserve's communication of a numerical inflation objective, first through its Summary of Economic Projections and later through the announcement of a 2 percent target in 2012, better anchored inflation expectations. Moreover, inflation expectations in the United States have remained anchored amid the volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, similar analysis reveals no evidence of anchoring in Japan despite the adoption of a numerical inflation target.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
175
期刊介绍: The Review of Economics and Statistics is a 100-year-old general journal of applied (especially quantitative) economics. Edited at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Review has published some of the most important articles in empirical economics.
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