A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE BIRTH RATE MODELING

Population statistics and demographic are important indicators to show the country's quality of life, social and health, the status of the population, the change in the population structure, and its effect on economic life. In demography, the crude birth rate is used to measure the growth of a population. In this study, we perform the crude birth rate values of provinces in Türkiye with some statistical distributions. When the results are compared, the Gumbel distribution provides the best fit to model the crude birth rate values of provinces in Türkiye than Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. Among compared distributions, the Gumbel model is the best model to present the CBR data since log likelihood (logL), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) values of the Gumbel distribution are the lowest among all models. In addition, the results with the compared distributions are supported by graphs.