Short-term readiness, long-term innovation: the European defence industry in turbulent times

ABSTRACT The war in Ukraine, coupled with a more turbulent international system characterized by geopolitical competition between the United States and China, is leading to a simultaneous change in the demand and supply side of the European defence market. On the demand side, European countries are adapting their procurement plans to move from a crisis management phase dominated by asymmetric warfare against small states or non-state actors to an era of strategic competition and potential conflict against peer adversaries. On the supply side, European defence industries are preparing to meet the increased demand for major equipment from national governments in the short term, while at the same time trying to be ready to invest in long-term innovation, in order to anticipate future government requirements for the new era. This paper investigates the interactions between demand and supply in the European defence market and provides a first illustration of the trade-off between prioritizing short-term readiness over long-term innovation and vice versa