通过实现非化石能源消费比例目标研究中国新能源发展趋势

Mengxuan Lv, Bo Yuan, Haitao Chen, Chenglong Zhang
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摘要

近日,国家统计局发布了《中华人民共和国 2022 年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》(以下简称《公报》)。公报》显示,2022 年中国一次能源消费总量为 54.1 亿吨标准煤。预计到 2025 年,能源消费总量将达到约 58.4-60.4 亿吨标准煤。为实现到 2025 年非化石能源消费占能源消费总量 20%的目标,预计国家电网公司经营区域内新能源装机容量将比此前预计超出 1 亿-1.4 亿千瓦。研究团队从风险评估的角度出发,结合非化石能源消费比重目标的完成情况,构建了衡量中国新能源发展趋势的评估模型。他们深入探讨了新能源超预期发展带来的问题,并提出了针对性的应对措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Study on China’s New Energy Development Trend through Achieving the Consumption Proportion Target for Non-fossil Energy
Recently, the Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2022 National Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as "Communiqués") was published by the National Bureau of Statistics. According to the Communiqués, China’s total primary energy consumption in 2022 amounted to 5.41 billion tons of standard coal. It is projected that by 2025, the total energy consumption will reach approximately 5.84-6.04 billion tons of standard coal. In order to meet the target of non-fossil energy consumption accounting for 20% of total energy consumption by 2025, the installed new energy capacity within operating areas of State Grid Corporation of China is anticipated to exceed the previous estimate by 100-140 million kilowatts. From a risk assessment standpoint, the research team has constructed an evaluation model to gauge China’s new energy development trend, taking into account the accomplishment of the consumption proportion target for non-fossil energy. They delve into the issues brought about by the unexpected development of new energy and put forth pertinent measures to tackle them.
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