重新审视进口投入在亚洲经济体中的作用

IF 0.4 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS
Woocheol Lee
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的--全球生产链及其对经济增长的影响已引起研究人员的广泛关注。东亚经济体快速稳定的经济增长证明,全球生产链、出口和经济增长之间存在密切关系。这些经济体利用离岸外包在全球生产链中扮演各种角色,其中进口对国内总产出的影响与出口一样大。进口对经济增长的影响取决于进口投入是替代还是补充国内投入的生产,这可能因各个国家在全球生产链中的职能而异。相关国家的经济增长也会有所不同。然而,与进口的重要性相比,人们很少关注进口带来的影响。 设计/方法 - 本文采用的主要方法是结构分解分析法(SDA),该方法被广泛用于利用投入产出表阐明各种因素对国内总产出的影响。本文从世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)2016 年版本中提取了六个亚洲经济体的贸易数据,该数据库涵盖了 43 个国家 2000-2014 年期间的数据。然后将提取的数据分为 37 个行业。首先,本文计算了每个国家的芬斯特拉-汉森离岸外包指数(OSI)。然后,本文运用 SDA 测量每个经济体的总产出、出口、进口投入系数和国内投入系数的变化。最后,在对汇集的时间序列数据进行首次差分后,使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)估算进口投入系数与 OSI 之间的相关性。 研究结果 - 本文的主要研究结果可归纳如下。首先,所有六个国家都越来越多地参与到全球生产链中,OSI 规模的不断扩大就证明了这一点。其次,除日本外,其他五个国家都存在负相关关系,并存在部门差异。第三,所有六个国家的进口投入系数的变化都不是负的,这表明离岸外包并不一定替代国内投入生产,而是对国内投入生产的补充,因此促进了这些国家的经济增长。这一点在中国、印度尼西亚、韩国和台湾都有所体现。离岸外包导致进口投入的使用增加,反过来又刺激了这些国家国内投入的生产。 独创性/价值--现有研究在评估参与全球生产链的影响时主要关注出口的作用,而本文则利用 WIOD,通过考虑替代效应和互补效应,明确研究了进口对国内总产出的影响。本文的研究结果表明,亚洲经济体不仅通过成功的出口管理,还通过全球生产链中有效的进口管理,实现了快速稳定的经济增长。本文建议韩国政府和企业谨慎选择离岸外包战略,以尽量减少对国内生产链的干扰或促进国内生产链的发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Revisiting the Role of Imported Inputs in Asian Economies
Purpose - Global production chains and their impacts on economic growth have drawn extensive attention from researchers. Close relationships among global production chains, export and economic growth have been illuminated, as evidenced by the fast and stable economic growth of East Asian economies. These economies perform various roles within global production chains using offshoring, in which the impact of import on domestic gross output is as strong as that of export. The impact of import on economic growth would depend on whether imported inputs substitute or complement domestic inputs production, which is likely to vary according to individual countries' functions within global production chains. The economic growth of concerned countries would also be diverse. However, little attention has been paid to the impact brought by imports compared to its significance. Design/methodology - The principal methodology used in this paper is structural decomposition analysis (SDA), widely chosen to elucidate the impact of various factors on domestic gross output using input-output tables. This paper extracts trade data of six Asian economies from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) 2016 release that covers 43 countries for the period 2000-2014. The extracted data is then categorised into 37 sectors. First, this paper calculates the Feenstra-Hanson Offshoring Index (OSI) of each country. It then applies SDA to measure the changes in each economy's gross output, export, import input coefficients, and domestic input coefficients. Finally, after taking the first difference from pooled time-series data, it estimates the correlations between imported input coefficients and OSI using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. Findings - The main findings of this paper can be summarised as follows. Firstly, all six countries have increasingly engaged in global production chains, as evidenced by the growing size of OSI. Secondly, there are negative correlations in five countries except Japan, with sectoral differences. Thirdly, changes in import input coefficients are not negative in all six countries, indicating that offshoring does not necessarily substitute for domestic inputs production but does complement it and, therefore, fosters their economic growth. This is observed in China, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan. Offshoring has led to an increase in the use of imported inputs, which has, in turn, stimulated domestic inputs production in these countries. Originality/value - While existing studies focus on the role of export in evaluating the impact of participating global production chains, this paper explicitly examines the unexplored impact of import on domestic gross output by considering both the substitution and the complementary effect, using the WIOD. The findings of this paper suggest that Asian economies have achieved fast and stable economic growth not only through successful export management but also through effective import management within global production chains. This paper recommends that the Korean government and enterprises carefully choose offshoring strategies to minimise disruption to domestic production chains or foster them.
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来源期刊
Journal of Korea Trade
Journal of Korea Trade Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
自引率
20.00%
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0
期刊介绍: Journal of Korea Trade purports to support and encourage researches in the area of international economics, international business and foreign trade practices & laws. The Journal welcomes theoretical and empirical papers in the broadly-defined international trade issues and policy implications in the context of Korea Trade.
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