1960 年至 2018 年刚果民主共和国国内价格和经济活动的变化:描述性分析、相关性和后续政策

Phanouel Kagufa, Pascaline Ntabugi, Bobo B. Kabungu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究论文旨在分析刚果通货膨胀率与经济增长之间存在的不同关系,并确定其对经济政策的影响。研究方法以描述性分析和计量经济学分析相结合为基础,时间跨度为 1960-2018 年。分析表明,一方面,在国家经济发展的前三个阶段存在负相关,但不显著;另一方面,在第四个阶段存在统计意义上的显著负相关。此外,研究还强调了第一和第三阶段经济增长率与通货膨胀率之间的单边因果关系。在建议方面,建议建立旨在加强和巩固宏观经济框架的机制,其基础是实施限制性短期政策和雄心勃勃的结构改革,以及有利于公共和私人投资的激励措施。只有这样,刚果(金)的国内生产总值才能在国内物价总水平适度或可控变化的情况下加速增长并持续下去。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Évolution des prix intérieurs et activité économique en RDC de 1960 à 2018 : analyse descriptive, corrélation et politiques subséquentes
This research paper aims to analyze the different relationships that exist between the inflation rate and economic growth, in the Congolese context, and to determine their implications in terms of economic policies. The approach is based on a combination of descriptive and econometric analyses, covering the period 1960-2018. This shows, on the one hand, the existence of a negative but insignificant link in the first three phases of the country's economic development and, on the other hand, a statically significant negative relationship with regard to the fourth phase. In addition, the study highlights a unilateral causality going from the rate of economic growth to the rate of inflation in the first and third phases. By way of recommendations, it is suggested to put in place mechanisms aimed at strengthening and consolidating the macroeconomic framework, based on the application of restrictive short-term policies and ambitious structural reforms and incentives favorable to public and private investment. It is only in this way that the increase in the DRC's gross domestic product can accelerate and be sustained, subject to a moderate or controlled variation in the general level of domestic prices.
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