解读 IPCC 报告中的概率语言

Corey Dethier
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摘要

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)经常使用概率 "可能性 "语言来修饰其声明。在本文中,我将指出,无论是从频繁主义还是贝叶斯的角度来解释这种语言都是不恰当的--简单地说,IPCC 使用了两种统计方法来计算这些可能性。然后,我提出了一种通货紧缩主义的解释:概率语言所表达的不过是根据某种产生标准化分数的方法,证据与给定假设的匹配程度。最后,我得出一些初步的规范性结论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calculate these likelihoods. I then offer a deflationist interpretation: the probabilistic language expresses nothing more than how compatible the evidence is with the given hypothesis according to some method that generates normalized scores. I end by drawing some tentative normative conclusions.
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