Research on the Impact of Vocational Education on Total Factor Productivity and Mediating Effects

As an important type of education for cultivating high-quality technical and skilled talents, vocational education provides significant human capital support for the high-quality development of the economy. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2005 to 2020, this study employs the Malmquist productivity index to measure Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Using a two-way fixed effects and mediation effects model, the study empirically analyzes the impact and mechanisms of vocational education on TFP. The results show that the expansion of higher vocational education has a more significant effect on TFP growth compared to secondary vocational education, with a particularly pronounced influence in the eastern and western regions. The analysis of the mediating mechanisms reveals that human capital and technological innovation are important pathways through which vocational education promotes TFP growth. Therefore, to achieve high-quality development of vocational education and enhance TFP growth, it is recommended to moderately expand the scale, improve the vocational education training system, increase support for vocational education to narrow regional disparities, promote the integration of vocational education with industry to enhance the conversion rate of technological innovation, shift the focus from scale expansion to internal improvement, and promote regional coordinated development.