1970-2020 年土耳其的结构变化、贸易开放度、可再生能源与经济增长

Ş. Nas, Ebru Aricioğlu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本文旨在研究结构变革、贸易开放和可再生能源对土耳其经济增长的影响。 设计/方法:结构变化是指资源从农业部门转移到工业部门,然后再转移到服务部门。在结构变革过程中,制造业被认为是经济增长的引擎。然而,自 20 世纪 70 年代中期以来,特别是在 80 年代后,制造业的重要性已经丧失。此外,贸易自由化和能源政策也在这一过程中凸显出来。在此背景下,本文在结构主义方法的框架内分析了经济增长的决定因素。为此,我们采用了 ARDL 边界检验方法,并应用 FMOLS、DOLS 和 CCR 进行稳健性检验。 研究结果根据 ARDL 边界检验结果,制造业、可再生能源和贸易开放度对经济增长有正向影响;但可再生能源的系数在统计上不显著。稳健性检验(FMOLS、DOLS 和 CCR)的结果也证实了上述结论。制造业对经济增长的影响大于其他变量。 局限性:为分析结构变化对土耳其经济增长的影响,本研究仅限于 1970-2020 年期间。 原创性/价值:本文的独创性在于分析了结构转型(如制造业、贸易开放和可再生能源)对土耳其长期经济增长的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Türkiye'de Yapısal Değişim, Ticari Açıklık, Yenilenebilir Enerji ve Ekonomik Büyüme Bağlantısı, 1970-2020
Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the effects of structural change, trade openness, and renewable energy on economic growth in Türkiye. Design/Methodology: Structural change is defined as the shift of resources from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector and then to the services sector. In the structural change process, it is accepted that the manufacturing industry is the engine of growth. However, since the mid-1970s, especially in the post-1980 period, the manufacturing industry has lost its importance. In addition, trade liberalisation and energy policies came to the fore in this process. In this context, this paper analyses the determinants of economic growth within the framework of the structuralist approach. For this, we apply the ARDL bounds test approach and apply FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR for robustness check. Findings: According to the ARDL bounds test results, the manufacturing industry, renewable energy, and trade openness affect economic growth positively; however, the coefficient of renewable energy is statistically insignificant. The results of the robustness check (FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR) also confirm these findings. The effect of the manufacturing industry on economic growth is greater than that of other variables. Limitations: To analyse the impact of structural change on economic growth in the Türkiye, the study is limited to the period 1970-2020. Originality/Value: The originality of our paper is that it analyses the impact of structural transformation (such as the manufacturing industry, trade openness, and renewable energy) on long-run economic growth in Türkiye.
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